Did the Jets overpay for Pavelec?

Reason #947 why you don't need to pay a goalie: any team in hockey could have signed Mike Smith last summer for a measly $2 million a year.

Yes, the same Mike Smith that went 38-18-10 with a .930 SV% and 8 shutouts in the regular season before going Superman on us in the playoffs and nearly carrying the Coyotes all the way to Stanley Cup Finals, was the 28th highest paid goalie in hockey last year.

Which brings us to the 5 year/$19.5M contract the Winnipeg Jets and Ondrej Pavelec agreed to. There is no doubt Pavelec, despite posting the 34th best SV% in the NHL last year, is a decent goalie with the potential to improve. What there is doubt about is whether spending almost $4M a year on only half of your goalie position is a prudent use of cap space.

Below is the starting goalie salary for each of the last 10 Stanley Cup Finalists:

2012: Kings, Quick - $1.9M and Devils, Brodeur - $5.2M

2011: Bruins, Thomas - $6M and Canucks, Luongo - $10M

2010: Hawks, Niemi - $827K and Flyers, Leighton/Boucher - $750K (avg.)

2009: Penguins, Fleury - $3.5M and Red Wings, Osgood - $1.7M

2008: Red Wings, Osgood - $800K - and Penguins, Fleury - $1.6M

By my math that is 6 of the 10 playoff starters that were paid less than $2M a year, and going even further, 5 of the 10 teams (Detroit twice, Pens in '08, Hawks, Flyers and Kings) spent less than $3M total on the goaltending position. 

Recent history suggests a team that pinches pennies on the goalie position is actually more likely to reach the Finals than one that doesn't.

What Are They Worth?

Winnipeg has decisions to make on 12 free agent players

As the Jets struggle to remain a part of the Eastern conference playoff race and the end of their magical first year back in the NHL begins to appear on the horizon, management will soon be faced with deciding who among their group of nine unrestricted free agents will move forward with the team, as well as how their three restricted free agents might fit into the picture.

The biggest offseason contract decision at any position for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will be that of what to do with winger Evander Kane. Coming off his entry level contract, which paid him an annual salary of $900k with bonuses that can take him all the way up to $3.1 million (depending on all sorts of things we won't get in to here), the 20 year-old has quickly become Winnipeg's most dangerous player and the one with the most upside. With 18 goals on the season, Kane's next score will tie his career high and a 30 goal campaign is within reach, which would represent continued progression for a player who will have increased his goal and point totals in each of his first three seasons. He's big and strong and his skill set includes elite level speed and a heavy, accurate shot with a quick release. Kane looks an awful lot like he's a dominant power forward waiting to happen.

However, he also lacks consistency and from the sounds of it, maturity. From trying to sell tweets to local businesses, to alienating teammates, to ignoring autograph seeking fans, Kane still has a lot of growing up to do and pegging his value at this stage of his evolution will be tricky. The average annual salary on a new contract will ultimately depend on the length, meaning a shorter deal of 2-3 years could be at about $3 million annually while anything longer than four years will cost considerably more per year. This negotiation could turn ugly and potentially even extend into training camp.

The other restricted free agent up front is Eric Fehr, who is earning $2.2 million this year to play an average on nine inconsequential minutes a night. The Jets took a chance on Fehr, acquiring him for a 2012 4th rounder in what was essentially a salary dump by the Capitals, but with just one lonely goal on the season another one-way NHL contract in Winnipeg is unlikely.

Among the UFA's at forward, Jim Slater ($1.1 million) and Tanner Glass ($750k) have become 2/3rds of what would be an excellent fourth line (if they weren't miscast as a third line), and both should expect new multi-year offers. Slater is the team's face-off specialist and a consistent 10 goal scorer so a similar salary on a two year deal would be appropriate. Glass has proven he can play the energy role and chip in offensively, which could force the Jets to go to at least three years in the $1 million per year range or risk losing him to another team.

Also unrestricted are Tim Stapleton ($525k), who has one huge fan in Claude Noel (I've given up trying to understand Stapleton on the point during the PP) and not many others, and Kyle Wellwood ($700k), who has two fans in his parents. The only way Wellwood should be on an NHL team is if he's playing in the top six, because as Jets fans (and Shark, Canuck and Leafs fans before them) have witnessed, in a third or fourth line role he is entirely ineffective. With that said, if Wellwood is in your top six permanently, as in not just an injury forced fill-in, well, say hello to the draft lottery. Bon voyage to them both.

On the back end Winnipeg has four UFA's, most notably Johnny Oduya, who is in the last year of a contract that pays him $4 million this season. After a very difficult first 10 games, which included a trip to the press box as a healthy scratch, Oduya has settled in nicely but will probably need to take a bit of a haircut on his current salary if he wants to stick around next year and beyond. I expect Cheveldayoff is already negotiating with Oduya's agent, and if no extension can be reached before the deadline, he could be dealt for a prospect or a pick.

The rest of the free agent defencemen, all of whom are unrestricted, include the oft-injured Randy Jones ($1.15M), the rehabbing Derek Meech ($700k), and the surprisingly dependable Mark Flood ($525k). Of the three Flood is the most obvious choice to continue with the team beyond this year, but each could easily be replaced if contract negotiations prove to be at all difficult. Jones, if he can stay healthy, could also be moved at the deadline.

In goal, both Ondrej Pavelec and Chris Mason are set to become free agents but a case can easily be made to stay the course, assuming Mason is willing to take a one year deal at slightly below his current $2.1 million salary. The offseason goalie market, particularly for aging veterans (Mason will turn 36 in April), has dried up considerably in recent years as teams recognize there are more quality goalies than jobs available, making bargain bin deals an option for any team willing to be patient (Vokoun, Elliott, Smith, to name just a few from last summer alone). All accounts suggest Mason is a positive presence in the dressing room and his performance, albeit in limited action, indicates he still has enough game to stop pucks when called upon. As long as he doesn't get greedy, it's a good bet he'll return.

Pavelec, despite his mediocre numbers (2.89 GAA and .910 SV%), has played very well overall and has established himself as a core piece of this team moving forward. He's coming off a deal that paid him only $1.3 million, and can expect a significant raise. Pavelec and his agent will likely point to his countryman Jaroslav Halak as a reasonable comparable and look for something in the neighbourhood of $4 million annually for at least four years. But as a restricted free agent, and with his misleading numbers, Cheveldayoff has an opportunity to lock Pavelec up with a team friendly contract, something closer to $3 million per year.

What We've Learned So Far...

After a 7 game road-trip the Jets are still trying to develop an identity

Roughly one-fifth of the way through the regular season represents a good opportunity to gauge the performance of the new Winnipeg Jets. Through 15 games, this is what the play on the ice has told us...

Tanner Glass is the Jet whose stock has risen the most among fans

The 27 year-old rugged left-winger gives the most consistent effort night-in and night-out. Glass plays hard and has just about matched his entire point production from last year in Vancouver (73 games, 3 G and 7A). Third and fourth line type players are perhaps Winnipeg's deepest strength (back-handed compliment alert!), but Glass stands out among this group and Cheveldayoff and company should be looking to sign him to a new deal before he hits unrestricted free agency next summer. We knew Mark Stuart was going to be nasty to play against. Glass has been a pleasant surprise.

Ondrej Pavelec looks like a bona fide #1 goalie

The young netminder showed flashes of brilliance his last two years in Atlanta, but after a bit of a rough start (he allowed 9 goals on his first 54 shots this year), Pavs has really found his groove, starting every game on the road-trip and turning in five stellar performances. He is absolutely capable of stealing games for this team. The traditional numbers (3.31 GAA and .896 SV%) don't look good, but for 24 minutes a night Pavelec's playing in front of only one defenceman. Which brings us to...

Dustin Byfuglien is a defenceman! Yes, he is. No really.

We know this because coach Claude Noel continues to insist on playing him there. And we've also been told that he refuses to even consider playing forward. Never mind that his blatant disregard for: staying in position, choosing his spots to pinch, back-checking, and making quick stops and starts (nobody makes bigger loops back into action) have directly resulted in a number of goals against. Apparently that is part of the "learning process" that fans and Pavelec will have to suffer through. Logic might suggest that with a shortage of offensive punch up front, Byfuglien would provide more value to this team playing forward. Clearly logic is not part of this equation.

Jets management believe in Johnny Oduya, even if you don't

Other than Byfuglien, Oduya has been the favourite whipping boy for local fans. But when Winnipeg slapped an "A" on his jersey after Enstrom and Antropov went down, it was a clear signal that Jets management believe Oduya is considerably better than his early season play had indicated. And you know what? The vote of confidence has seemed to work as Oduya has been noticeably stronger on the puck since the move.

Alex Burmistrov is talented

The 20 year-old Russian has played very well in the young season, and his shiftiness along the boards and overall puck control skills are elite. But his consistency is already a question. After a six game point streak, he has registered just a single point over his last six games. Shades of Alex Zhamnov?

Jim Slater is over-achieving (production-wise)

And no one should expect it to continue. My apologies to his agent and family, but it's true. Slater scored 5 goals in his first 11 games and is on pace for a 30-goal season. His career history suggests he is a 10 goal scorer, so even getting to 15 this year would be pushing it.

Tim Stapleton should not be playing the point on the powerplay

No matter the circumstances. Stapleton has 0 goals and 3 assists in 11 games this year and 13 points in his NHL career. He is 29. Those don't seem like the qualifications for a powerplay specialist.

Expect Some Turbulence

Time to buckle up Jets fans, all indications suggest it will be a bumpy ride

Yes, the entire city, and frankly a good chunk of the country, is eagerly anticipating the official return of the Winnipeg Jets to NHL hockey this coming Sunday.

The buzz has been building ever since the Stephen Brunt article hit the web back in May, and has only grown with the release of the new logo and uniform that is being worn in some fashion by approximately 97% of the local population (the faded women's v-neck t-shirt is borderline spectacular).

When you factor in the blitzing media coverage provided by Hockey Night in Canada and TSN (radio and television), the dominating water cooler talk in every business and social setting, and of course the total panic surrounding all those not fortunate enough to have gotten in on season tickets, the love-in for all things Jets has reached its crescendo.

Because the moment the puck leaves the hand of Bobby Hull, or Stephen Harper (or whomever it is that gets the call for the monumental moment) and hits the ice, well, all the anticipation and pure joy for the return of NHL hockey will fade to the background. From that point on it will be about results.

There is no doubt this franchise will have a grace period - five years of confirmed sellouts guarantees that. No one expects this team to win the Stanley Cup this year, or even next. But playoff hockey in the near future is on the minds of many locals, and to reach that goal, players will need to develop and wins will need to be accumulated.

And that is where the conversation gets tough.

In Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian, and Ondrej Pavelec, the Thrashers have provided the Jets with a solid group of young players to build around, and it looks like Zinger and Chevy drafted another piece to include in Mark Scheifele. Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien and particularly Tobias Enstrom form a nucleus of better than average veterans to lead the way.

That group absolutely represents promise, and has upside to believe in. The problem is that outside of Enstrom, none of those players represent bonafide first line NHLers. Not today anyways. The young guys all have the potential to get there, but potential can't be expected to immediately translate into wins.

The problem begins with the rest of the roster, which is filled mostly with 3rd and 4th liners, who other than the soulless Nick Antropov and the disinterested Kyle Wellwood, should play passionately in front of what promises to be an all-out crazy home barn. But passion and grit can only get you so far (like about 10th place in the East).

The Jets first line of Ladd, Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler is actually a decent second line or a great third line on a championship caliber team. Kane, Burmistrov and Antropov are again, a decent third line. Scheifele and Eric Fehr (when he returns) represent 2/3's of another decent third line. The Tanner Glass's, Ben Maxwell's, Tim Stapleton's, Chris Thorburn's, Patrice Cormier's and Jim Slater's of the world are great to have when they combine to fight for the 12th and 13th forward spots. But when you need to dress three or four or even five of them a night, well, that's not a good sign.

I expect this team to feed off the home crowd and play winning hockey in front of the MTS Centre faithful, but struggle mightily on the road. On that note, the early schedule could be cruel, with Winnipeg playing only 4 of their first 15 games at home, including a 7-game road-trip through the Eastern conference from Oct.27 to Nov.8.

Head coach Claude Noel along with the management duo of Zinger and Chevy have done a great job establishing a culture and identifying their model for success.

Hopefully Jets fans have the patience to allow them to stick to it.

The Forgotten Star

Only 3 defenceman have out-scored Winnipeg's Tobias Enstrom over the last two years

On the day the Winnipeg Jets opened training camp for the first time in 15 years, one storyline continued to dominate local headlines.

That would be Dustin Byfuglien, who, thanks to his ongoing legal matters as well as his Prince Fielder-like figure, has been heavily (couldn't resist) focused on.

Before Big Buff started getting the Kate & Will treatment from the Winnipeg media, the spotlight had mostly been occupied by Andrew Ladd. He was the first Jet to touch down in the 'Peg after the team officially relocated, and his new five year contract, along with his recent stats, Stanley Cup pedigree, and Western Canadian upbringing gave fans reason to feel comfortable with their instant attachment to the new captain.

The tragic suicide of Rick Rypien was obviously big news as well, while the hometown heroes (Fehr, Gregoire, Meech), and potential young stars (Kane, Little, Pavelec, Burmistrov and Scheifele) have each received their fair-share of print.

Lost amongst all those storylines is that of a 27 year-old Swede who just might be the NHL's most underrated player.

Tobias Enstrom was drafted eight rounds into the 2003 Entry Draft (239th overall), and despite putting up solid numbers and progressing in each of his four NHL seasons (he was an All-Star in 2010-11), hasn't stopped being overlooked by the hockey community.

When you think about Duncan Keith, Nicklas Lidstrom, and Dan Boyle you instantly recognize them as elite NHL defencemen who provide excellent offensive output and quarterback their teams' powerplays.

What most people don't realize is they are also the only three d-men to register more points (Keith - 114, Lidstrom - 111, Boyle - 108) over the last two years than Enstrom (101).

What Enstrom lacks in stature (he is listed at 5'10 and 175) he makes up for with skill and savvy, and after finishing in a tie for fourth amongst defencemen with 28 powerplay points last season, Jet fans and the entire hockey community won't be overlooking him much longer.

The Curious Case of Anthony Stewart

Why would Winnipeg cut loose a young, cheap asset?

Kevin Cheveldayoff and Craig Heisinger have been modest, safe and predictable with their hockey decisions for the Winnipeg Jets.

Signing Andrew Ladd was a no-brainer. Staying away from over-priced unrestricted free-agents is clearly part of the plan. As is building from within, developing their draft picks, and maybe favouring a prairie birth certificate. This organization is insistent on laying a foundation and then building from the bottom up.

Thanks to a multi-year season ticket package, the euphoria surrounding this franchise will not wear off for at least three years, which is great news for the hockey operations department. The pressure, at least initially, is off. No matter what the team does on the ice, every seat in the MTS Centre will be sold, so there was no need to go all Glen Sather on July 1 and spend recklessly. Cheveldayoff and Heisinger know they can afford to be patient, to be stable.

That's what makes it so difficult to understand why the Jets would let Anthony Stewart walk away.

The 26 year-old Stewart is a former first-round pick, a Canadian World Junior champion who spent parts of four straight seasons in Florida's line-up but never established himself as a full-time NHLer. After Florida gave up on him two years ago, Atlanta signed him and kept him in the AHL the entire 2009-10 season. Last year Stewart graduated back to the NHL and played 80 games for the Thrashers contributing 14-goals, 39-points, and at times, gave a decent resemblance of a bona fide power forward.

After making only slightly above the league minimum last year ($632k), Stewart wasn't due for a huge raise. A raise yes, but nothing astronomical. His play last year suggested his upside was worth modestly investing in, especially with ample cap space and a roster that is thin on forwards.

But shortly after the draft Winnipeg announced they would not tender a qualifying offer to the restricted free agent, instead choosing to allow Stewart to leave for nothing via unrestricted free agency. It was strange and it didn't seem to fit the model that was being built. Here was a young, affordable player with the potential to easily outperform his next contract, and they take a pass.

Did the Jets believe Stewart over-achieved last year, that he isn't capable of being an NHL player? Was his attitude so poor that they didn't want him around other players? Did he not want to come to Winnipeg? Lot of questions, but so far very few answers.

Earlier this week Stewart signed in Carolina for a very reasonable $1.8 million over two years.

Jets fans are wondering why he was forced to move on.