A Vote for Carlos Villanueva

Q: Why does the Canadian baseball/sports media refuse to give any love to Carlos Villanueva?

CSJ: The easy answer is because neither of Alex Anthopoulos nor John Farrell have ever given them reason to, but we won't go there. Starting over then...Beats me. All he's done is pitched his butt off when asked to fill-in on a decimated starting rotation. In eight starts this year covering 47 innings, he's given up 40 hits and 16 earned runs with 50 K's against 14 walks. Read those numbers again*. They're probably unsustainable, but you'd still think they'd be good enough to at least merit consideration for a starting role moving forward. Yet when referencing the work that needs to be done to fix said rotation for next year, you never hear Villanueva's name come up alongside Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. You can argue that he is prone to the long ball (12 HR allowed in 21 starts as a Jay) and that with an average of only 5.2 innings per start, he lacks stamina. But Toronto is 13-8 in those 21 games** and with the options currently very thin both in big-league ready prospects and note worthy free-agents-to-be, why isn't Villanueva being touted as a potential candidate for a permanent role as a starter?

*I wanted to include xFIP, WAR, and K/9, which are all awesome advanced stats but after googling my way to very little and not wanting to spend 2 hours separating the starting numbers from his totals, I can only offer this to my fellow stat nerd brothers: his 2012 WHIP as a starter is 1.15 which would place him 8th among AL Starters.

**Including a passable effort over 13 start last year: 72 IP, 85H, 42 earned runs, 42K, 16BB. Again, sorry for the archaic stats but we should really blame the internet because how can Carlos Villanueva's advanced stats only as a starter this year not be at my fingertips? WHY?

Did the Jets overpay for Pavelec?

Reason #947 why you don't need to pay a goalie: any team in hockey could have signed Mike Smith last summer for a measly $2 million a year.

Yes, the same Mike Smith that went 38-18-10 with a .930 SV% and 8 shutouts in the regular season before going Superman on us in the playoffs and nearly carrying the Coyotes all the way to Stanley Cup Finals, was the 28th highest paid goalie in hockey last year.

Which brings us to the 5 year/$19.5M contract the Winnipeg Jets and Ondrej Pavelec agreed to. There is no doubt Pavelec, despite posting the 34th best SV% in the NHL last year, is a decent goalie with the potential to improve. What there is doubt about is whether spending almost $4M a year on only half of your goalie position is a prudent use of cap space.

Below is the starting goalie salary for each of the last 10 Stanley Cup Finalists:

2012: Kings, Quick - $1.9M and Devils, Brodeur - $5.2M

2011: Bruins, Thomas - $6M and Canucks, Luongo - $10M

2010: Hawks, Niemi - $827K and Flyers, Leighton/Boucher - $750K (avg.)

2009: Penguins, Fleury - $3.5M and Red Wings, Osgood - $1.7M

2008: Red Wings, Osgood - $800K - and Penguins, Fleury - $1.6M

By my math that is 6 of the 10 playoff starters that were paid less than $2M a year, and going even further, 5 of the 10 teams (Detroit twice, Pens in '08, Hawks, Flyers and Kings) spent less than $3M total on the goaltending position. 

Recent history suggests a team that pinches pennies on the goalie position is actually more likely to reach the Finals than one that doesn't.

Just Breathe

Brian Burke is about to make a trade. We know this because a) Burke loves a camera and b) he told us as much.

On January 12 the Toronto Maple Leafs were riding a season high four game winning streak when their general manager Brian Burke naturally decided to stand on his soapbox and announce that he was open for business.

"I'm not interested in getting our asses kicked in the first round." he said, before later in the media scrum adding, "We are looking to add and get better now."

Some general managers might look at a four game winning streak and decide it probably isn't the right time to suggest he is ready to make changes. Some general managers, particularly those in charge of teams that haven't participated in a single playoff game since they arrived, might think getting their asses kicked in the first round might not be so bad. That it might even represent progress.

Of course some GM's also occasionally smile, and some are even capable of offering a "no comment" when asked for their opinion. Brian Burke is not one of those GM's.

Burke was built for reality TV. Earlier this season he made news for revealing he offered to rent a barn and schedule a time to fight Kevin Lowe. It's amazing that HBO has waited three seasons to showcase him on 24/7.

Leading us back to the fact that Brian Burke is about to make a trade...and that scares me.

After seven long years, Leaf fans can finally see the end of the tunnel. The Toronto roster, as it currently stands, is young, quick, talented and not only does it have considerable upside for the future, it's already proving it is legitimate. The Leafs have 2/3rds of an elite first line, an excellent second line, tremendous depth on defence, and decent depth in their bottom six forwards. (As I've been saying for years, goalies don't matter.)

Even the penalty kill, after three and a half years (that felt like seven) of truly horrific play, has come around. Last night's win over Pittsburgh moved Toronto into seventh in the conference, with 6th place Ottawa entirely catchable.

All of which is say that now is not the time to make a two or three for one type of deal that removes multiple players from the NHL roster. Now is not the time to move a comfortable and productive Grabovski. Now is not the time to dangle Kulemin or first and second round draft picks. Now is not the time to play to the media, to put the team on edge, to make a trade only because you've previously indicated you were ready to make a trade.

Now is the time to let this roster breathe.

Now is the time for Burke to show his players the same patience he has shown his head coach.