The Fan Confidence Scale V2.0

Roughly a quarter of the way through the NHL season...time to again break-out the fan confidence scale.

7.8 - Calgary Flames

The Flames, on paper, are easily the most formidable of Canada's six NHL teams. They have a top five talent in Jarome Iginla, excellent secondary point producers (Jokinen, Bourque, Langkow) and a rock-solid defensive unit that includes three premier players (Bouwmeester, Phaneuf and Regehr). When you combine new coach Brent Sutter and perhaps the best group of foot soldiers in hockey (Boyd, Dawes, Glencross, Nystrom, Giordano), this is a blueprint for post-season success. They'll need to find a way to keep Kiprusoff fresh for playoffs (he's started 19 of 21 games), especially in an Olympic year, but my money is on Calgary being the last Canadian team standing in 2010.

6.2 - Ottawa Senators

Overall, the Sens have played slightly above their heads through the first quarter of the season and much of that is due to Mike Fisher finally earning some of his $21 million contract. Maybe Carrie Underwood is to Fisher what Kate Hudson is to A-Rod? Some might argue Sens fans should have a higher rating, that they are a confident bunch right now. But the schedule has been soft (multiple wins against Toronto and Tampa) and heavily loaded with home games (15 of 21). And to everyone who anointed Pascal Leclaire the best goalie in Senators history before he ever played a game for Ottawa - care to change your vote? I'm not saying he can't be the answer, goalies heat up and cool off all the time (sort of like the Canadian dollar or Lindsay Lohan) but a .900 save percentage and 2.71 GAA are very close to his career stats (.906 and 2.81). He is what he is: A decent goalie who can potentially steal a few games but cannot be counted on to provide consistently stellar performances. Anyone who thought Jonathan Cheechoo might benefit from a change of scenery (Bryan Murray...Buhler?) was proven wrong. He's on pace for 8 goals and 16 points, which would be his fifth straight season with declining totals in both categories. Thankfully for Ottawa, this is the final year of his contract (but $3.5 million for 8 or so goals can't look very good to owner Eugene Melnyk).

5.6 - Vancouver Canucks

The 'Nucks weathered the storm nicely while Luongo was out and now that they have him and Daniel Sedin back in the line-up, fans are hoping they can snap out of the funk that has seen them alternate 3 game winning and losing streaks and put together a more consistent effort. Speaking of goaltending, it would seem that with Luongo signed through 2022, now might be the time to trade Schneider. No, not Matthew. Top goaltending prospect Corey Schneider (who has been dominant in the AHL with a 58-26-3 career record, a 2.12 GAA and .920 SV% and led his Manitoba Moose to within one win of a championship) is clearly ready to make the next step and is too valuable to be stuck in a back-up role for the next decade. GM Mike Gillis made a couple of underrated moves when he added Mikael Samuelsson (9G, 9A) and picked up Christian Ehrhoff (5G, 10A, +11) from the salary-dumping Sharks. Together with the growth of Kevin Bieksa and Alex Edler, Ehrhoff has really solidified the defence. If they can get Pavol Demitra back and finally ice a healthy line-up the Canucks will be knocking on the Calgary door.

5.1 - Montreal Canadiens

From the department of 'How Shocking' - Scott Gomez has 2 goals on the season. I would love to wonder aloud how long it will be until Hab fans and the media partner up to run him out of town, but his contract makes that an impossibility. Gomez has a better chance of being bought out than traded again. So instead, we can wonder: how long until Carey Price is run out of town? Because you know it's going to happen. Price has been on thin ice with the fans since the day Gainey pushed him onto Guy Carbonneau's team and then forced him into the starting position by trading Cristobal Huet at the 2008 trade deadline. If I were a NHL GM I would constantly be in Gainey's ear trying to swindle him out of Price, who will be a terrific goalie when he reaches the magic 'goalie maturation date' of 26 or 27. Price is 22 right now. The standings say Montreal is a .500 team, but in reality they've won four shootouts and four more overtime games. That's three regulation wins in 23 games. They pushed Guillaume Latendresse out of town amid 'character' issues and just re-called Sergei Kostytin who demanded a trade in October and, with his brother, was at the center of 'character' issues last year. In short: The dressing room continues to be a mess. The only current bright spot for Canadiens fans is the colossal disaster that is the Toronto Maple Leafs.

4.4 Edmonton Oilers

It's extremely disappointing for Oiler fans that neither Sam Gagner nor Andrew Cogliano has progressed into the bonafide point producer they were projected to become. Gagner is two years younger and still has the potential to be a genuine top-6 forward, but Cogliano looks more and more like a third line center. As for the guy who seemingly has progressed and developed, Dustin Penner, well I'm not quite ready to pencil him in for 30 goals and 80 points. Penner absolutely looks quicker and more confident on the ice, but if you take away his two big games (4 points vs. Detroit on Oct. 29 and 5 against Columbus on Oct. 22) he has 17 points in 22 games. Decent numbers for sure, but anyone suggesting a roster spot on the Olympic team is within reach should go ahead and have their head examined. Twenty games does not a player make. Nikolai Khabibulin is a difference-maker in net, but he hasn't played 60+ games since the 2002-03 season in Tampa and the Oilers need him to play close to 70 if they are going to have a shot at the playoffs.

0.8 - Toronto Maple Leafs

Vesa Toskala is trying (and succeeding) to play himself out of the league, free-agent signings Francois Beauchemin and Mike Komisarek have somehow made the defence worse (a combined -20) and Luke Schenn looks "Land of the Lost" bad. Which, for anyone who hasn't seen it, is truly awful. Up front Toronto has Phil Kessel and eleven guys who should be in the minors. Or retired. Or doing anything besides being paid to play hockey. The two highest paid forwards besides Kessel, Jason Blake and Lee Stempniak, have 7 total goals and are rumoured to be days (or hours) away from being put on waivers. When Ian White is your team MVP at this stage of the season you better hope you're playing in the AHL. Or the ECHL. If the Leafs would've just held on to Anton Stralman (4G, 11A with Columbus) or not signed Colton Orr (and Jeff Finger) or only traded one of their next two first-round picks...things wouldn't be so bad. I'll let Dwight Shrute take it from here. "If onlys and justs were candies and nuts, then everyday would be un de donkfest". And there you have it.

Random Thoughts a Week Before Christmas

Who at this point of the NHL and NBA seasons correctly predicted the Leafs to be closer to a playoff position than the Raptors? Anyone? Buhler?

When thinking of the Raptors’ current situation (mostly with my face in my hands and shaking my head) I can’t help but be reminded of the classic Ron Burgundy line from ‘Anchorman’: “Boy, that escalated quickly…I mean that really got out of hand fast!” From a 3-0 start, to firing Sam Mitchell only 16 games in, to an awful 5-8 record at home.

At least Chris Bosh looks fresh.

And two things about the Leafs:

1) Brian Burke has been in Toronto for nearly three weeks and we’ve hardly heard a peep out of him. I wasn’t expecting daily appearances on the Up Front segment of ‘Off the Record’ or one-on-one interviews with the Star or Globe taking readers inside his new Rosedale digs, but…nothing? Couldn’t someone from the middle of the media scrum lob in a Kevin Lowe question and then duck? Is that too much to ask?

2) For all the Leaf fans salivating at the thought of pushing Tomas Kaberle out of town: Calm down. His salary is a very reasonable $4.15M a year. Or less than Mathieu Schneider, Ron Hainsey, Lubomir Visnovsky, Kim Johnsson, Sheldon Souray, Roman Hamrlik, Michal Rozsival, Wade Redden, and Eric Brewer. Would you really take any of those players over Kaberle? I wouldn’t. Has he looked great this year? No. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t still extremely valuable (perhaps the Leafs' best player) and again, is tremendously affordable. Unless a team wants to overpay, I don’t think Burke moves him. How do you replace what Kaberle provides at that price moving forward?

As for a certain former Maple Leaf Captain who is reportedly set to join the Rangers, I ask: What happened to your refusing to be dealt at last year’s deadline because you “never believed in the concept of a rental player” and felt that to truly appreciate winning a Stanley Cup “you have to have been part of the entire journey and that means October through June.”

If your goaltending tandem consists of Alex Auld and Martin Gerber, and your defence is as mobile as Kurt Warner in the pocket, can you really be surprised or upset that you find yourself on the outside of the playoff race?

In Montreal fans and media alike are jumping all over the Habs powerplay (or lack thereof after going 2 for their last 37 which has plummeted the unit all the way to 29th in the league) and overall lack of intensity and urgency, but I think Guy Carbonneau and Bob Gainey are quietly comfortable with their position. This season, the 100th in the illustrious history of the Canadiens, was always going to be a grind no matter how it played out. With the extra CBC games providing even more exposure, the huss and fuss over the All-Star Game including the ballot-stuffing efforts of the local faithful, and the plethora of impending free agents, expectations and pressure could easily get out of hand in Montreal. The ‘slow’ start has tempered that, and it’s probably a good thing in the long run. Let Boston deal with the spotlight for now and focus on building momentum towards the playoffs.

While I wrote that paragraph the San Jose Sharks won three more times and now have a remarkable 124 points through 30 games.

The NHL isn’t exactly experiencing a scoring renaissance: Total goals per game are up slightly, but still remain at less than 6 per contest, a far cry from the free-wheeling days of the 80’s and early 90’s. On the flip side however, more players are stepping up their production to the point that we could see the league’s largest group of bonafide snipers since the turn of the century. As of this morning five players are on pace for 50 goal seasons (Ovechkin, Vanek, Carter, Kessel, Parise) and another eight are on pace for 40+ goals (Sharp, Gagne, Iginla, Marleau, Hossa, Boyes, Setoguchi, Zetterberg).

Fantasy Sports tangent: For me, Kessel is a player whose performance is bitter sweet. I drafted him each of the last two years expecting him to break out only to suffer through terrible seasons. This year I stayed away and sure enough he summons his inner Ovechkin and goes on a tear. It’s times like these when I consider whether investing so much time admiring or cursing my roster, and contemplating trades is worth it. (Thinking...) Yes. Yes it is.

The best part of Angelo Esposito finally making the World Junior Team in his fourth attempt was not having to watch him give another choked-up interview at six in the morning minutes after being cut. That would have been tough.

A month into baseball’s free agent season the Yankees have spent $250 million upgrading their rotation and the Rays and Red Sox will both return nearly every key player from last year’s playoff rosters. The Jays answer? Signing Matt Clement and Adam Loewen to minor league deals. Do the Orioles smell blood?

The Fan Confidence Scale

After a quarter of the NHL regular season, how much confidence should fans have in their favorite Canadian team?

8.7 - Montreal Canadiens
Despite their team not playing anywhere close to their capability, most Habs fans are feeling pretty good about their team, and rightfully so. Montreal can get outplayed or dig a deep hole yet they’ve shown they have the ability to battle back and win, even if they don’t put in their best effort. The Canadiens have remarkable balance and depth throughout the line-up, most notably in net where Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak make up the best goaltending tandem in the league. Bob Gainey has constructed a talented veteran roster that is well insulated with cheap, young fringe players, and Guy Carbonneau, now in his third full season, has grown into a presence behind the bench.

They clearly have another gear, but the Canadiens seem happy to continue along at a ho-hum pace, not creating too many unnecessary waves at this point in the season. With the jersey retirements, 100th Anniversary celebrations, and all the other hoopla that constitutes day-to-day life in hockey-crazy Montreal, it would be extremely taxing for the Habs to play from ahead all year long. They know the true test begins in April, and that's when Gainey and Carbonneau want their team to peak.

6.9 - Calgary Flames
In Jarome Iginla and Dion Phaneuf, the Flames continue to feature the best forward/defence 1-2 combo in hockey, which has made it reasonably simple for Darryl Sutter to sufficiently fill in the rest of the roster. And while neither the Todd Bertuzzi signing (16 points but a minus 10) nor the Mike Cammalleri trade (20 points but afraid of going anywhere near the net) has been an overwhelming success, they haven’t been awful mistakes either. Both guys were brought in to take scoring pressure off Iginla, which they along with dependable veterans Daymond Langkow and Craig Conroy, have done. Throw-in the surprising contributions from Curtis Glencross and Rene Bourque, and a defence unit that as a whole is tough, versatile and certainly capable of providing above average play, and Calgary appears to be in very good shape.

But there's a problem…in net. This is the fifth straight season Miikka Kiprusoff has seen his GAA go up (1.70, 2.07, 2.46, 2.69, 3.05) and his save percentage go down (.933, .923, .917, .906, .895). Calgary hasn't won a playoff round since advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2004. Unless Kipper regains his form, that streak will continue.

6.1 - Vancouver Canucks
With Roberto Luongo this team has a chance to win every game. Without him, they are the Vancouver Blue Jackets. The Sedin twins should remember that when they’re holding the Canucks hostage next summer during contract negotiations.

As for this season, Canucks fans would be wise not to get too comfortable in their current surroundings, because even if Luongo returns from his groin pull relatively soon, Vancouver isn’t likely to continue leading the Northwest division much longer. The team is playing well above it’s head and is relying on unsustainable production from a streaky Kyle Wellwood and foot soldiers like Alex Burrows, Jannick Hansen, and Willie Mitchell. The Sedins are putting up decent but not outstanding numbers, as usual, but if making the playoffs this year means a seven or eight year contract for the brothers, maybe the Canucks would be better off losing?

The $15 million combined that the Sedins want in addition to Luongo’s contract would tie up nearly 40% of Vancouver’s cap room on just three players. That could be enough to push Luongo out the door the following year if he suspects the team won’t be able to surround him with enough talent to realistically compete for the Stanley Cup. I'm not sure two Sedins and a bunch of pluggers fit that bill.

5.5 - Ottawa Senators
For a long time the Sens were a good team that made consistent progress year after year. They were young, talented, full of potential, and were earning their playoff scars that would eventually take them to the next level. After all those good regular seasons and playoff disappointments, Ottawa finally reached the Cup finals two years ago only to be throttled by Anaheim. Then Pittsburgh destroyed them in the first round last year after the Sens backed into the playoffs, and now the window of opportunity for this team is shut. Boom. Locked, boarded up, it's over. The Senators can continue to switch coaches like George Steinbrenner in the 70’s, but there isn’t a band-aid big enough to fix this problem. They're not a bottom-feeder, but the days of being a true contender are over. Time to blow it up.

You have to wonder how different things may have been if Ottawa had decided to pay Zdeno Chara the extra $2 million a year and keep him instead of Wade Redden?

4.9 - Edmonton Oilers
Most of the blame for a disappointing start has been focused on goaltending and the lack of offense from forwards not named Ales Hemsky. But how does Kevin Lowe get let off the hook? He was the one who signed a still unproven Dustin Penner to an outlandish contract. It was Lowe and Steve Tambellini who traded for a clearly on-the-decline Eric Cole (who peaked in 2006 and has never been the same since the Brooks Orpik hit), and have allowed their team to play a quarter of the season with a three-headed goaltending monster that has produced several storylines but few big wins. Scary indeed.

One player who shouldn’t be singled out is second year forward Sam Gagner. The 19 year-old is another Oiler struggling mightily this year after unrealistic expectations were created following his 49-point rookie campaign. All of a sudden this year he was ‘penciled’ in for 60+ points and when you put a young player in a situation like that, if he doesn’t get off to a good start it can be nearly impossible to get on track.

To sum it up: Blame Kevin, not Sam.

2.8 - Toronto Maple Leafs
This spring will mark the fourth straight season that Toronto has missed the playoffs, but with the hiring of Brian Burke as the new GM, Leaf fans finally have a reason to be optimistic about the future. Not the immediate future mind you, because the current roster is a mess and the lack of draft picks (10 total over the next two drafts) make this re-building effort at least a two-year project, maybe three. Still, Burke has the personality and stature to deal with the demanding Toronto media, and gone, supposedly, are the days of the evil MLSE board having to approve any and all hockey transactions, making the path back to credibility decidedly less tumultuous..

If my calculations are correct and Burke continues to clear cap space as expected (good-bye: Antropov, Kaberle, Kubina), the Leafs should have more than enough room to sign both Lebron James and Chris Bosh in 2010.