Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Owners or Players?


The question has been constant for each and every hockey fan since a real threat of a lockout became apparent towards the end of the summer.

Who's side are you on: Owners or Players?

I couldn't choose. I assumed all along that a league that cancelled an entire season and players who sacrificed on average 20% of their career earnings only eight years ago wouldn't be so foolish as to miss games again. With "record revenues", a long-term U.S. television network deal, and plenty of buzz from another thrilling Stanley Cup playoff that culminated with a major market being crowned champions, I just didn't believe they could be so stupid. I thought a deal would get done. I thought a deal had to get done.

Did I think the owners initial offer that they unfathomably made public back in July was comically unreasonable? Absolutely. But I also assumed that with an average NHL player's salary sitting at $2.5 million, and the minimum at $550K, the NHLPA would comprehend how ridiculously well-compensated they are and be motivated to keep the gravy train rolling.

Even if the offer was a slap in the face (which again, it definitely was), it set the parameters for where the league wanted to go with the CBA and it was then up to the PA to get the best deal they could within those parameters. That's how these negotiations work, not just in hockey, but in all sports. In all business. The owners take the risk and therefore they have the ultimate say on how they will divide up their business. They set the framework and negotiations (eventually) progress from there.

But instead of common sense prevailing*, here we are days away from what should be the first night of the regular season, and we are somehow already guaranteed to miss games and might be on the verge of losing the whole season. Again.

*I along with 200,000 other hockey fans out there can mediate this stand-off in no time: gradual slide to 50/50 split of HRR; immediate increases to revenue sharing and re-distribution to lower-revenue teams; 8 year maximum length on contracts; same rules for free agency. Boom. Your welcome.

Instead of locking themselves in a room and chipping away at the gap that exists between the two sides, we've watched as months pass in between the swapping of proposals, and now weeks go by without any sort of meetings. The lack of urgency from either side is jarring.

I couldn't choose a side when the question was first asked months ago, and I'm no closer to an answer now. Mostly I'm just extremely frustrated with everyone involved.

I'm frustrated with the owners who have so little regard for the fans money and passion that they readily shut the game down every 8 or 10 years. I'm frustrated with the players who have copped out and gone overseas. I'm particularly frustrated with Mike Cammalleri for saying "you can go over there [to the KHL] and make millions and millions and millions of dollars to play hockey". Ummm, Mike, you do realize we can easily go online and figure out that you've earned about $26 million thus far in your NHL career, and have 2 more years at $7 million per on your contract. Would $40 million count as "millions and millions and millions of dollars to play hockey"? Because in my book it does.

And I'm frustrated with myself for already admitting that whenever this senseless lockout ends, I will be back going to games and watching them on television, just like nothing ever happened.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Did the Jets overpay for Pavelec?



Reason #947 why you don't need to pay a goalie: any team in hockey could have signed Mike Smith last summer for a measly $2 million a year.

Yes, the same Mike Smith that went 38-18-10 with a .930 SV% and 8 shutouts in the regular season before going Superman on us in the playoffs and nearly carrying the Coyotes all the way to Stanley Cup Finals, was the 28th highest paid goalie in hockey last year.

Which brings us to the 5 year/$19.5M contract the Winnipeg Jets and Ondrej Pavelec agreed to. There is no doubt Pavelec, despite posting the 34th best SV% in the NHL last year, is a decent goalie with the potential to improve. What there is doubt about is whether spending almost $4M a year on only half of your goalie position is a prudent use of cap space.

Below is the starting goalie salary for each of the last 10 Stanley Cup Finalists:

2012: Kings, Quick - $1.9M and Devils, Brodeur - $5.2M
2011: Bruins, Thomas - $6M and Canucks, Luongo - $10M
2010: Hawks, Niemi - $827K and Flyers, Leighton/Boucher - $750K (avg.)
2009: Penguins, Fleury - $3.5M and Red Wings, Osgood - $1.7M
2008: Red Wings, Osgood - $800K - and Penguins, Fleury - $1.6M

By my math that is 6 of the 10 playoff starters that were paid less than $2M a year, and going even further, 5 of the 10 teams (Detroit twice, Pens in '08, Hawks, Flyers and Kings) spent less than $3M total on the goaltending position. 

Recent history suggests a team that pinches pennies on the goalie position is actually more likely to reach the Finals than one that doesn't.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Just Breathe

Brian Burke is about to make a trade. We know this because a) Burke loves a camera and b) he told us as much.


On January 12 the Toronto Maple Leafs were riding a season high four game winning streak when their general manager Brian Burke naturally decided to stand on his soapbox and announce that he was open for business.

"I'm not interested in getting our asses kicked in the first round." he said, before later in the media scrum adding, "We are looking to add and get better now."

Some general managers might look at a four game winning streak and decide it probably isn't the right time to suggest he is ready to make changes. Some general managers, particularly those in charge of teams that haven't participated in a single playoff game since they arrived, might think getting their asses kicked in the first round might not be so bad. That it might even represent progress.

Of course some GM's also occasionally smile, and some are even capable of offering a "no comment" when asked for their opinion. Brian Burke is not one of those GM's.

Burke was built for reality TV. Earlier this season he made news for revealing he offered to rent a barn and schedule a time to fight Kevin Lowe. It's amazing that HBO has waited three seasons to showcase him on 24/7.

Leading us back to the fact that Brian Burke is about to make a trade...and that scares me.

After seven long years, Leaf fans can finally see the end of the tunnel. The Toronto roster, as it currently stands, is young, quick, talented and not only does it have considerable upside for the future, it's already proving it is legitimate. The Leafs have 2/3rds of an elite first line, an excellent second line, tremendous depth on defence, and decent depth in their bottom six forwards. (As I've been saying for years, goalies don't matter.)

Even the penalty kill, after three and a half years (that felt like seven) of truly horrific play, has come around. Last night's win over Pittsburgh moved Toronto into seventh in the conference, with 6th place Ottawa entirely catchable.

All of which is say that now is not the time to make a two or three for one type of deal that removes multiple players from the NHL roster. Now is not the time to move a comfortable and productive Grabovski. Now is not the time to dangle Kulemin or first and second round draft picks. Now is not the time to play to the media, to put the team on edge, to make a trade only because you've previously indicated you were ready to make a trade.

Now is the time to let this roster breathe.

Now is the time for Burke to show his players the same patience he has shown his head coach.

Monday, January 16, 2012

What Are They Worth?

Winnipeg has decisions to make on 12 free agent players


As the Jets struggle to remain a part of the Eastern conference playoff race and the end of their magical first year back in the NHL begins to appear on the horizon, management will soon be faced with deciding who among their group of nine unrestricted free agents will move forward with the team, as well as how their three restricted free agents might fit into the picture.

The biggest offseason contract decision at any position for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will be that of what to do with winger Evander Kane. Coming off his entry level contract, which paid him an annual salary of $900k with bonuses that can take him all the way up to $3.1 million (depending on all sorts of things we won't get in to here), the 20 year-old has quickly become Winnipeg's most dangerous player and the one with the most upside. With 18 goals on the season, Kane's next score will tie his career high and a 30 goal campaign is within reach, which would represent continued progression for a player who will have increased his goal and point totals in each of his first three seasons. He's big and strong and his skill set includes elite level speed and a heavy, accurate shot with a quick release. Kane looks an awful lot like he's a dominant power forward waiting to happen.

However, he also lacks consistency and from the sounds of it, maturity. From trying to sell tweets to local businesses, to alienating teammates, to ignoring autograph seeking fans, Kane still has a lot of growing up to do and pegging his value at this stage of his evolution will be tricky. The average annual salary on a new contract will ultimately depend on the length, meaning a shorter deal of 2-3 years could be at about $3 million annually while anything longer than four years will cost considerably more per year. This negotiation could turn ugly and potentially even extend into training camp.

The other restricted free agent up front is Eric Fehr, who is earning $2.2 million this year to play an average on nine inconsequential minutes a night. The Jets took a chance on Fehr, acquiring him for a 2012 4th rounder in what was essentially a salary dump by the Capitals, but with just one lonely goal on the season another one-way NHL contract in Winnipeg is unlikely.

Among the UFA's at forward, Jim Slater ($1.1 million) and Tanner Glass ($750k) have become 2/3rds of what would be an excellent fourth line (if they weren't miscast as a third line), and both should expect new multi-year offers. Slater is the team's face-off specialist and a consistent 10 goal scorer so a similar salary on a two year deal would be appropriate. Glass has proven he can play the energy role and chip in offensively, which could force the Jets to go to at least three years in the $1 million per year range or risk losing him to another team.

Also unrestricted are Tim Stapleton ($525k), who has one huge fan in Claude Noel (I've given up trying to understand Stapleton on the point during the PP) and not many others, and Kyle Wellwood ($700k), who has two fans in his parents. The only way Wellwood should be on an NHL team is if he's playing in the top six, because as Jets fans (and Shark, Canuck and Leafs fans before them) have witnessed, in a third or fourth line role he is entirely ineffective. With that said, if Wellwood is in your top six permanently, as in not just an injury forced fill-in, well, say hello to the draft lottery. Bon voyage to them both.

On the back end Winnipeg has four UFA's, most notably Johnny Oduya, who is in the last year of a contract that pays him $4 million this season. After a very difficult first 10 games, which included a trip to the press box as a healthy scratch, Oduya has settled in nicely but will probably need to take a bit of a haircut on his current salary if he wants to stick around next year and beyond. I expect Cheveldayoff is already negotiating with Oduya's agent, and if no extension can be reached before the deadline, he could be dealt for a prospect or a pick.

The rest of the free agent defencemen, all of whom are unrestricted, include the oft-injured Randy Jones ($1.15M), the rehabbing Derek Meech ($700k), and the surprisingly dependable Mark Flood ($525k). Of the three Flood is the most obvious choice to continue with the team beyond this year, but each could easily be replaced if contract negotiations prove to be at all difficult. Jones, if he can stay healthy, could also be moved at the deadline.

In goal, both Ondrej Pavelec and Chris Mason are set to become free agents but a case can easily be made to stay the course, assuming Mason is willing to take a one year deal at slightly below his current $2.1 million salary. The offseason goalie market, particularly for aging veterans (Mason will turn 36 in April), has dried up considerably in recent years as teams recognize there are more quality goalies than jobs available, making bargain bin deals an option for any team willing to be patient (Vokoun, Elliott, Smith, to name just a few from last summer alone). All accounts suggest Mason is a positive presence in the dressing room and his performance, albeit in limited action, indicates he still has enough game to stop pucks when called upon. As long as he doesn't get greedy, it's a good bet he'll return.

Pavelec, despite his mediocre numbers (2.89 GAA and .910 SV%), has played very well overall and has established himself as a core piece of this team moving forward. He's coming off a deal that paid him only $1.3 million, and can expect a significant raise. Pavelec and his agent will likely point to his countryman Jaroslav Halak as a reasonable comparable and look for something in the neighbourhood of $4 million annually for at least four years. But as a restricted free agent, and with his misleading numbers, Cheveldayoff has an opportunity to lock Pavelec up with a team friendly contract, something closer to $3 million per year.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

The Brains Behind the Bruins

In less than six years the NHL's best General Manager, Boston's Peter Chiarelli, has drafted, signed or acquired all but three of the 23 active players on his roster


When Peter Chiarelli was hired by the Bruins in May of 2006, he inherited a team that seemed to be going nowhere after it traded a dollar (Joe Thornton) for three quarters (Brad Stuart, Marco Sturm, Wayne Primeau) and finished 13th in the East.

Knowing the team had lost it's identity, Chiarelli immediately capitalized on a brutal mistake when the team he had just left, the Ottawa Senators, chose to re-sign Wade Redden over Zdeno Chara. That allowed Chara to hit the open market, and Chiarelli snapped him up with a five year deal that made the towering defenceman the NHL's highest paid rearguard ($7.5 million/year) and the new face of the Bruins.

That same summer Chiarelli also added free-agent Marc Savard, drafted Phil Kessel (5th), Milan Lucic (50th), and Brad Marchand (71st), and traded former Calder trophy winning goalie Andrew Raycroft to Toronto for Tuuka Rask. Even though Boston improved by only 2 points in the standings during Chiarelli's first season (06-07), the foundation for an elite team was quickly being put in place.

The next year (07-08) the Bruins returned to the playoffs, and as an eighth seed forced a game seven before losing in the opening round. They advanced to the second round the following two years (08-09 and 09-10) before becoming the Stanley Cup champions in 2010-11. That culminated a pretty good run.

Or so we thought.

Improbably, they've actually improved upon that form and have been steamrolling the NHL since Halloween. Boston is currently on a 24-4-1 run that has included a pair of 6-0 triumphs, as well as 7, 8, and 9 nothing games in their favour. They lead in goals scored and goals against, have the league's best road record, are the only team not to have allowed a shorthanded goal, and could have as many as 11 players score 15 or more goals.

Chiarelli has assembled hockey's deepest and most complete line-up and his Bruins are the odds-on favourite to become only the second team in the last 20 seasons to successfully defend their championship (Detroit in 96-97 and 97-98).

In addition to the moves outlined earlier, Chiarelli has made a number of shrewd high profile deals (Kessel for draft picks that became Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton; Brad Boyes for Dennis Wideman, who eventually turned into Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell), was rewarded for staying patient with holdover young talent (Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci), and identified and acquired the right veteran pieces to help short-term (Mark Recchi) and long (Rich Peverley, Chris Kelly, Andrew Ference, Dennis Seidenberg, Johnny Boychuk).

Even the goaltending situation, which not that long ago was a potential area of concern, appears to be working itself out beautifully for Chiarelli. After Tim Thomas provided exceptional value during his first three and a half years in Boston, Chiarelli signed the goalie to a four year $20 million contract extension that kicked in for the 09-10 season and would see Thomas through to his 40th birthday. As that season unfolded Thomas struggled and Rask emerged, and it looked like the Bruins might be stuck with a potentially crippling $5 million cap hit for an aging back-up goalie.

Instead, Thomas bounced back with a Vezina and Conn Smythe-winning performance last year, has posted nearly identical numbers again this year, and now has only one more very cap manageable season left on that extension. Meanwhile Rask has gained plenty of experience, and will be looking to increase his workload and salary at a time that should fit perfectly into Chiarelli's plans.

Which evidently include more Stanley Cup parades in Boston.

*Bergeron, Krejci, and Thomas were the only three players Chiarelli didn't bring to Boston.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

What We've Learned So Far...

After a 7 game road-trip the Jets are still trying to develop an identity


Roughly one-fifth of the way through the regular season represents a good opportunity to gauge the performance of the new Winnipeg Jets. Through 15 games, this is what the play on the ice has told us...

Tanner Glass is the Jet whose stock has risen the most among fans
The 27 year-old rugged left-winger gives the most consistent effort night-in and night-out. Glass plays hard and has just about matched his entire point production from last year in Vancouver (73 games, 3 G and 7A). Third and fourth line type players are perhaps Winnipeg's deepest strength (back-handed compliment alert!), but Glass stands out among this group and Cheveldayoff and company should be looking to sign him to a new deal before he hits unrestricted free agency next summer. We knew Mark Stuart was going to be nasty to play against. Glass has been a pleasant surprise.

Ondrej Pavelec looks like a bona fide #1 goalie
The young netminder showed flashes of brilliance his last two years in Atlanta, but after a bit of a rough start (he allowed 9 goals on his first 54 shots this year), Pavs has really found his groove, starting every game on the road-trip and turning in five stellar performances. He is absolutely capable of stealing games for this team. The traditional numbers (3.31 GAA and .896 SV%) don't look good, but for 24 minutes a night Pavelec's playing in front of only one defenceman. Which brings us to...

Dustin Byfuglien is a defenceman! Yes, he is. No really.
We know this because coach Claude Noel continues to insist on playing him there. And we've also been told that he refuses to even consider playing forward. Never mind that his blatant disregard for: staying in position, choosing his spots to pinch, back-checking, and making quick stops and starts (nobody makes bigger loops back into action) have directly resulted in a number of goals against. Apparently that is part of the "learning process" that fans and Pavelec will have to suffer through. Logic might suggest that with a shortage of offensive punch up front, Byfuglien would provide more value to this team playing forward. Clearly logic is not part of this equation.

Jets management believe in Johnny Oduya, even if you don't
Other than Byfuglien, Oduya has been the favourite whipping boy for local fans. But when Winnipeg slapped an "A" on his jersey after Enstrom and Antropov went down, it was a clear signal that Jets management believe Oduya is considerably better than his early season play had indicated. And you know what? The vote of confidence has seemed to work as Oduya has been noticeably stronger on the puck since the move.

Alex Burmistrov is talented
The 20 year-old Russian has played very well in the young season, and his shiftiness along the boards and overall puck control skills are elite. But his consistency is already a question. After a six game point streak, he has registered just a single point over his last six games. Shades of Alex Zhamnov?

Jim Slater is over-achieving (production-wise)
And no one should expect it to continue. My apologies to his agent and family, but it's true. Slater scored 5 goals in his first 11 games and is on pace for a 30-goal season. His career history suggests he is a 10 goal scorer, so even getting to 15 this year would be pushing it.

Tim Stapleton should not be playing the point on the powerplay
No matter the circumstances. Stapleton has 0 goals and 3 assists in 11 games this year and 13 points in his NHL career. He is 29. Those don't seem like the qualifications for a powerplay specialist.

Friday, November 4, 2011

View From the Top

Leafs Finally Looking Good (For The Moment)


Last night's win by the Leafs not only continued their hot start to the season, it moved them right up to first overall in the NHL. And as of me writing this, hell had not officially frozen over.

Tied with Pittsburgh atop the standings thru 13 games, just about everything is going right for the Leafs. They boast two of the top scorers in the league, have battled through a lot of tight one goal games, the penalty kill has been terrific*, and because of the tremendous ACC crowd, have yet to lose a game.**

*I lied. Ranked dead last percentage wise, the Leafs penalty kill is a joke. This would be really alarming if the PK had been this bad for three years now. What? It has? Moving along...
**Lied again. Not a great job at all by the ACC crowd. Embarrassing would be a much better way to describe all the fake hockey fans who gobble up the best tickets but can't be bothered to actually sit in them until maybe the 15 minute mark.

The few remaining Leaf haters out there (!) might argue that Kessel and company have benefited from a borderline soft schedule, but at least credit Phil and the boys for taking advantage of it.

And credit Kessel himself, who has been dynamic and so far looks like the most dangerous offensive player in the game. Phil has traditionally been streaky as an NHL scorer, but he's never been this hot, for this long. Kessel is a serious threat to score every time he is on the ice. The puck follows him around and he creates scoring chances almost every shift.

Maybe at 24 he is mature enough to transition from streaky-young-player-with-crazy-offensive-potential, to legitimate NHL superstar.

But it hasn't just been Kessel carrying the load. Every part of the roster has contributed. Joffrey Lupul is probably playing above his head, but he has scored at this level before and he and Kessel seem to have developed great chemistry.

After a slow start the Grabovski/Kulemin/McCarthur line has started to pile up points, just as they did at times last year. Phaneuf is playing his best hockey in years and his partner Carl Gunnarson has blossomed. Rookie Jake Gardiner has been just about as good. Before going down with injury, Reimer was proving last year wasn't a fluke. Joey Crabb gets called up from the minors, scores 2 goals in 2 games, and quickly gets perhaps the best nick name in the league (King Crabb).

When you're on a roll, you're on a roll.

If you wanted to try to poke holes in the Leafs you could point to the disappointing performance Luke Schenn has turned in, obviously the PK, and the big summer trade with Nashville that has been a total bust.*

*The positive would be that Matthew Lombardi has bounced back and remained healthy so far after missing all but a handful of games last year with a concussion. Unfortunately he's put up about the same level of production as he did last year when he wasn't even in the line-up. But at least Lombardi is in the line-up, which is a lot more than you can say for Cody Franson. The other half of their return from the Predators was supposed be the bounty Toronto was rewarded with for taking on the minor albatross of a contract belonging to Lombardi. Instead Franson has been in the press box, unable to crack the line-up for all but 3 games, and is rumoured to be trade bait.

But that would be nitpicking, and after an extremely lean few years since the lockout, Leafs fans are more than ready to feel good about their team.

We'll see how long those feelings will last.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Expect Some Turbulence

Time to buckle up Jets fans, all indications suggest it will be a bumpy ride


Yes, the entire city, and frankly a good chunk of the country, is eagerly anticipating the official return of the Winnipeg Jets to NHL hockey this coming Sunday.

The buzz has been building ever since the Stephen Brunt article hit the web back in May, and has only grown with the release of the new logo and uniform that is being worn in some fashion by approximately 97% of the local population (the faded women's v-neck t-shirt is borderline spectacular).

When you factor in the blitzing media coverage provided by Hockey Night in Canada and TSN (radio and television), the dominating water cooler talk in every business and social setting, and of course the total panic surrounding all those not fortunate enough to have gotten in on season tickets, the love-in for all things Jets has reached its crescendo.

Because the moment the puck leaves the hand of Bobby Hull, or Stephen Harper (or whomever it is that gets the call for the monumental moment) and hits the ice, well, all the anticipation and pure joy for the return of NHL hockey will fade to the background. From that point on it will be about results.

There is no doubt this franchise will have a grace period - five years of confirmed sellouts guarantees that. No one expects this team to win the Stanley Cup this year, or even next. But playoff hockey in the near future is on the minds of many locals, and to reach that goal, players will need to develop and wins will need to be accumulated.

And that is where the conversation gets tough.

In Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian, and Ondrej Pavelec, the Thrashers have provided the Jets with a solid group of young players to build around, and it looks like Zinger and Chevy drafted another piece to include in Mark Scheifele. Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien and particularly Tobias Enstrom form a nucleus of better than average veterans to lead the way.

That group absolutely represents promise, and has upside to believe in. The problem is that outside of Enstrom, none of those players represent bonafide first line NHLers. Not today anyways. The young guys all have the potential to get there, but potential can't be expected to immediately translate into wins.

The problem begins with the rest of the roster, which is filled mostly with 3rd and 4th liners, who other than the soulless Nick Antropov and the disinterested Kyle Wellwood, should play passionately in front of what promises to be an all-out crazy home barn. But passion and grit can only get you so far (like about 10th place in the East).

The Jets first line of Ladd, Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler is actually a decent second line or a great third line on a championship caliber team. Kane, Burmistrov and Antropov are again, a decent third line. Scheifele and Eric Fehr (when he returns) represent 2/3's of another decent third line. The Tanner Glass's, Ben Maxwell's, Tim Stapleton's, Chris Thorburn's, Patrice Cormier's and Jim Slater's of the world are great to have when they combine to fight for the 12th and 13th forward spots. But when you need to dress three or four or even five of them a night, well, that's not a good sign.

I expect this team to feed off the home crowd and play winning hockey in front of the MTS Centre faithful, but struggle mightily on the road. On that note, the early schedule could be cruel, with Winnipeg playing only 4 of their first 15 games at home, including a 7-game road-trip through the Eastern conference from Oct.27 to Nov.8.

Head coach Claude Noel along with the management duo of Zinger and Chevy have done a great job establishing a culture and identifying their model for success.

Hopefully Jets fans have the patience to allow them to stick to it.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

The Forgotten Star

Only 3 defenceman have out-scored Winnipeg's Tobias Enstrom over the last two years

On the day the Winnipeg Jets opened training camp for the first time in 15 years, one storyline continued to dominate local headlines.

That would be Dustin Byfuglien, who, thanks to his ongoing legal matters as well as his Prince Fielder-like figure, has been heavily (couldn't resist) focused on.

Before Big Buff started getting the Kate & Will treatment from the Winnipeg media, the spotlight had mostly been occupied by Andrew Ladd. He was the first Jet to touch down in the 'Peg after the team officially relocated, and his new five year contract, along with his recent stats, Stanley Cup pedigree, and Western Canadian upbringing gave fans reason to feel comfortable with their instant attachment to the new captain.

The tragic suicide of Rick Rypien was obviously big news as well, while the hometown heroes (Fehr, Gregoire, Meech), and potential young stars (Kane, Little, Pavelec, Burmistrov and Scheifele) have each received their fair-share of print.

Lost amongst all those storylines is that of a 27 year-old Swede who just might be the NHL's most underrated player.

Tobias Enstrom was drafted eight rounds into the 2003 Entry Draft (239th overall), and despite putting up solid numbers and progressing in each of his four NHL seasons (he was an All-Star in 2010-11), hasn't stopped being overlooked by the hockey community.

When you think about Duncan Keith, Nicklas Lidstrom, and Dan Boyle you instantly recognize them as elite NHL defencemen who provide excellent offensive output and quarterback their teams' powerplays.

What most people don't realize is they are also the only three d-men to register more points (Keith - 114, Lidstrom - 111, Boyle - 108) over the last two years than Enstrom (101).

What Enstrom lacks in stature (he is listed at 5'10 and 175) he makes up for with skill and savvy, and after finishing in a tie for fourth amongst defencemen with 28 powerplay points last season, Jet fans and the entire hockey community won't be overlooking him much longer.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

The Curious Case of Anthony Stewart

Why would Winnipeg cut loose a young, cheap asset?

Kevin Cheveldayoff and Craig Heisinger have been modest, safe and predictable with their hockey decisions for the Winnipeg Jets.

Signing Andrew Ladd was a no-brainer. Staying away from over-priced unrestricted free-agents is clearly part of the plan. As is building from within, developing their draft picks, and maybe favouring a prairie birth certificate. This organization is insistent on laying a foundation and then building from the bottom up.

Thanks to a multi-year season ticket package, the euphoria surrounding this franchise will not wear off for at least three years, which is great news for the hockey operations department. The pressure, at least initially, is off. No matter what the team does on the ice, every seat in the MTS Centre will be sold, so there was no need to go all Glen Sather on July 1 and spend recklessly. Cheveldayoff and Heisinger know they can afford to be patient, to be stable.

That's what makes it so difficult to understand why the Jets would let Anthony Stewart walk away.

The 26 year-old Stewart is a former first-round pick, a Canadian World Junior champion who spent parts of four straight seasons in Florida's line-up but never established himself as a full-time NHLer. After Florida gave up on him two years ago, Atlanta signed him and kept him in the AHL the entire 2009-10 season. Last year Stewart graduated back to the NHL and played 80 games for the Thrashers contributing 14-goals, 39-points, and at times, gave a decent resemblance of a bona fide power forward.

After making only slightly above the league minimum last year ($632k), Stewart wasn't due for a huge raise. A raise yes, but nothing astronomical. His play last year suggested his upside was worth modestly investing in, especially with ample cap space and a roster that is thin on forwards.

But shortly after the draft Winnipeg announced they would not tender a qualifying offer to the restricted free agent, instead choosing to allow Stewart to leave for nothing via unrestricted free agency. It was strange and it didn't seem to fit the model that was being built. Here was a young, affordable player with the potential to easily outperform his next contract, and they take a pass.

Did the Jets believe Stewart over-achieved last year, that he isn't capable of being an NHL player? Was his attitude so poor that they didn't want him around other players? Did he not want to come to Winnipeg? Lot of questions, but so far very few answers.

Earlier this week Stewart signed in Carolina for a very reasonable $1.8 million over two years.

Jets fans are wondering why he was forced to move on.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

NHL Signing Day

With a $64 million cap and a 23 man roster, the average annual salary for a NHL player in 2011-12 will be just shy of $3 million

When the NHL salary cap came into effect after the lock-out, I began to ruthlessly decry every long-term (6 or more years) and/or big dollar ($6 million plus annually) contract that was signed.

I ridiculed the Rangers for signing Chris Drury, the Flyers for Daniel Briere, the Red Wings for Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen, the Canucks for Roberto Luongo...the list went on and on (just like the actual contracts).

I always believed it was in a team's best interest to avoid those types of contracts at all costs. I understood the thinking behind tacking on years and paying the majority of the total contract at the front of the deal to reduce the cap hit, but I couldn't see the logic in committing more than five years to any player not named Crosby or Ovechkin. Injury, consistency, and complacency were all too much of a concern in my mind. Plus, I am apparently the only person who remembers the mess that was the NBA from 1996 - 2000. (So yes, my credibility took a hit with the 'It Won't Be Jets' and 'Manitoba Time' columns, but I did forsee the current NHL salary crisis a full three years ago.)

I also thought that tieing up as much as 20-25% of your cap space on 2-3 players would not allow a team to surround those top players with the quality depth needed to compete for a Stanley Cup.

I was adamant that teams who offered these types of contracts would regret them in the long run. I was positive that having more than a couple of players with annual salaries north of $5 million would cripple a team. I firmly believed you had to be very careful not to overpay anyone on your roster, and laughed at many contracts for borderline or slightly above average players who were signed to 3, 4 and $5 million contracts (Jeff Finger, Mike Commodore, Tuomo Ruutu, to name but a few).

I was deeply invested in the stockpiling draft picks/developing players/avoid over-paying for free agents philosophy. I believed you needed the roster flexibility that comes with putting together a team in this fashion, and if you didn't, well, at some point it would come back and bite you.

What I didn't see coming was a salary cap that would increase at a pace of almost 10% a year, from $39 million in 2006, all the way to $64 million in 2011. I didn't see the average, yes AVERAGE salary becoming almost $3 million in 2011.

Now when a player like Brooks Laich signs for $4.5 million a year, the sticker shock isn't nearly what it used to be. If the average salary is almost $3 million a year, then a slightly above average player is going to command at least slightly above $3 million a year. Simple logic.

The point is, worrying about fitting large salaries into your cap or slightly over-paying for an average player is suddenly a waste of time for fans and teams alike. Not only does a cap that keeps going up entice rich teams to be stupid, it also means those same teams have unlimited get-out-of-jail-free cards that can be used to give away bad contracts to teams needing to somehow get to the salary cap floor (which is a staggering $48 million for 2011-12).

All of which adds up to a humongous payday for Brad Richards.

I hope he signs with the Leafs.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Bry$galov

Philly will regret this one in the morning

The least shocking part of today's crazy shakeup in Philadelphia was the signing of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov to nine-year $51 million contract.

On a day when the Flyers may or may not have ripped the soul out of their team by trading Mike Richards, and also moved perennial 30-goal man Jeff Carter, they managed to saddle themselves with a ridiculous contract that became an albatross the second it was signed.

It wasn't shocking because shortly after they were eliminated from this spring's Stanley Cup playoffs, Flyers owner Ed Snider was quoted insisting his team find an established goalie no matter the cost.

"So either one of the goalies we have has to step up in training camp, or we have to make improvements to make sure it happens. But we are never going to go through the goalie issues we've gone through in the last couple of years. If we trade or go for a goalie [through free agency], we'll make it work. We can make anything work, even with the cap."

A few weeks later Philly traded for the rights to the soon-to-be unrestricted free-agent Byzgalov, who had quietly made it well known he wanted a deal in the neighbourhood of seven years and $49 million, and that meant a significant amount of dollars needed to be moved.

With a young Claude Giroux/JVR tandem and two highly skilled and dependable veterans in Daniel Briere and Chris Pronger, plus a pretty solid supporting cast, moving Richards or Carter is somewhat defensible.

But moving both to make room for Bryzgalov is not.

Committing dollars and length to a goalie in the salary cap system is not a good move, even with a cap that only goes up. Goaltenders are the easiest commodity to find. They are plentiful, they continue to flood the market, and therefore, they are cheap.

If I was Paul Holmgren, before finalizing the Bryzgalov contract I would've reached out to the Vancouver Canucks fans and asked them how they're feeling about being stuck with eleven more years of Roberto Luongo, then forwarded all the responses on to Ed Snider.

I would've pointed to Rick DiPietro.

Then I'd point in the other direction at Antti Niemi. And Brian Boucher or Michael Leighton. Corey Crawford. Craig Anderson.

Every year there are goalies who come out of nowhere and win or even steal games. Some get hot for one or two months, some for one or two years, and some prove they've got legitimate staying power. The difference in ability between the 3rd and 43rd best goalies in the world is fractional. You never know where or when you'll find a gem, or how long his game will last.

I'd also point to winning franchises like Detroit, Chicago and San Jose and the cheap and replaceable goaltending model they use.

Then I would've pointed back to DiPietro again.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Manitoba Time?

Chipman's latest comments suggest this team won't be called "Winnipeg"

"We are very honoured by the NHL board of governors' unanimous decision today," Mark Chipman, True North's chairman of the board, said in a statement.

"We know that the fans of this province have an appetite for NHL hockey that is rivalled by few in the league and intend to work very hard to make Manitobans proud of our franchise for years to come."

That was the comment released by True North after the NHL officially approved the relocation of the Atlanta Thrashers franchise to Winnipeg yesterday.

Since I love a conspiracy theory, and have been claiming for weeks that this team won't be called the Jets, it didn't take much for me to read between the lines and determine that whatever this team ends up being called (and I'm still sticking with Falcons, but am genuinely worried about Polar Bears), it will not be preceded by "Winnipeg".

Instead it will be the "Manitoba" somethings, which apparently follows the very successful off the field model of the Saskatchewan Roughriders. While Regina might be where the Riders play their home games, anyone who has ever stepped foot in Saskatchewan knows that the entire province embraces that team, and that is the type of following True North hopes to build for its Winnipeg-based NHL team.

Monday, June 6, 2011

It Won't Be Jets

True North will unveil a new name for the Winnipeg NHL franchise

If we've learned anything during True North's first week as NHL owners, it's that they aren't just the humble and respectful outfit they've been correctly reported to be. They're also very smart, innovative, and even calculating.

For years all we've heard about Mark Chipman and his pursuit of a NHL hockey team for Winnipeg was that he was "going about it the right way". Chipman and company were low-key, tight-lipped, and steadfast in their belief that Winnipeg was more than capable of supporting a NHL franchise. But the job they did capitalizing on the mass hysteria surrounding this story was nothing short of amazing, and it proves they should not be underestimated.

The preparation True North put into the ticket drive was evident from the first minute of last Tuesday's press conference right through to 12:17 on Saturday afternoon, when all 13,000 season tickets were gobbled up in shocking fashion. The level of detail they put in to laying out their plan, the readiness they showed with a clean and user-friendly website, and the sense of urgency they created in the marketplace was astonishing. It was a marketing clinic, and one that certainly made 29 other NHL franchises take notice.

So don't expect this story to come full circle. Sorry to all the romantics out there, but the NHL team that plays its home games in the MTS Centre next year will not be nicknamed the Jets. That would be too easy, and True North doesn't do easy. Just ask Rick Dudley. Many fans will be heartbroken, and yes, they absolutely will continue to wear their Jets jerseys to the MTS Centre, but the opportunity for ownership to start fresh (and sell a ton of merchandise in the process) will not be passed up.

The Jets, as much as Winnipeggers love them, were never a symbol of success on or off the ice. The Jets franchise won a total of only two playoff series in their 17 years, had 11 different head coaches, and full houses were the exception, not the norm. True North can get away with saying this is a new chapter for hockey in Winnipeg and Manitoba, and they want to start it with a clean slate.

So you can throw out Thrashers and Moose too. Neither of those represents a fresh start or a clean slate.

We've heard Polar Bears but that would be idiotic, and thankfully True North doesn't do idiotic either. (Although some people would argue a membership fee and annual dues to be on a waiting list comes awfully close.)

Assuming, all the potential name possibilities have been aired, that leaves us with only one remaining option: Falcons.

It will be painful at first to hear a new and foreign name, but gradually all those Jets jerseys that are sure to paint the home crowds blue for a while will become Falcons jerseys, and eventually we'll all be okay with that.

A good marketing department might even see an opportunity to allow fans to hold onto the Jets for a little while longer. A third jersey or an annual Jets "retro" night would certainly fix a lot of problems.

I wonder what a great marketing department might see?

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Benedict Junkie?

The return of NHL hockey to Winnipeg has this blogger questioning where to place his allegiance

Growing up in rural Manitoba, the first jersey I ever got was of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

An older kid who lived down the street and who was an excellent player in his own right, had a passion for the Leafs and I keenly followed his lead. Hats, pajamas, tooth brush, underwear - yup, all Leafs. Soon I had a sweet "Starter" jacket with a blue and white crisp Maple Leaf on the back, and I couldn't have been more proud.

In those days our family had a quarter share of two season tickets for the Jets, and with me being the biggest hockey fanatic of the four kids and my Mom, I went to the lions share of the games with my Dad. I cheered for the Jets, was a big fan of Ducky and Teemu (and Essensa and Steen, and the list goes on and on...), but I always wore my Leafs jersey and when Toronto came to town, I absolutely wanted the Buds to leave with the two points.

Still, when the Jets left in '96 it was a crushing feeling. I was at the last ever game, when Detroit eliminated Winnipeg in Game six of the first round and I can vividly remember the old Winnipeg Arena being completely jammed at 6pm, the original whiteout crowd going crazy, chanting "GO JETS GO" a full 90 minutes before game time.

Like most of my friends, I donated some of my hard-earned summer employment cash to the grassroots campaign that was launched to try and raise enough capital to keep the team around for one more year, to buy a little more time to find a new owner. I attended the "Save the Jets" rally, where 15,000 fans staged a sit-in at the arena and Don Cherry told us not to give up.

But it didn't matter. The Jets were sold, relocated to Phoenix, and suddenly I had no reason to even consider splitting my allegiance. If I wasn't completely and 100% behind the Leafs prior to that moment, I most certainly was from that point on.

As the rumours grew louder and louder over the past few weeks that the NHL would indeed be returning to Winnipeg, many of my friends, colleagues, and even strangers who saw me walking down the street with my Leafs hat on, asked what I was going to do if the Jets/Falcons/Moose came back?

My initial answer was easy: I've invested more than 25 years of my life following the Leafs, living and dieing with each and every win and loss. If and when the Leafs finally do win a Stanley Cup (humour me), I want to be around for that payoff. But having a team in my own backyard that in many ways represents the emotional return of long-lost friend, well, that complicates things.

My mind tells me Leafs, my heart tells me Jets.

I'd like to think I'm a logical person.

Friday, May 27, 2011

The Waiting Game

It's been eight days since Stephen Brunt declared a deal to return NHL hockey to Winnipeg was "done".

The story itself of course, of bringing the Jets back home, has been rumoured for most of the last two years. But it was the Brunt story last Thursday night that really sent Winnipeggers into a state of euphoria. Fifteen years of hope and patience (and a sky-rocketing Canadian dollar), had finally paid off.

Immediately following the Brunt report it was pure enthusiasm and exuberance. Dancing at Portage and Main, "Go Jets Go" chants at every opportunity, bar stool analysis of the Thrashers roster (Hello #1 draft pick in 2012, welcome to Winnipeg!), and of course the name game. Moose? Falcons? Or would True North throw the fans a bone and bring back the Jets moniker?

The Canadian holiday long weekend saw the initial emotions of the city transition into eager anticipation for the press conference that was to be held this past Tuesday. Old school Hawerchuk jersey packed for work? Check. Celebration plans for the local watering hole? Check. Phone calls and texts to put together a group to go splitsy on a season ticket package? Check.

Then over the last few days a hint of annoyance krept into the overall mindset of the city. Bettman's much-ado-about-nothing quote on Tampa radio Wednesday morning certainly poured water on the fire, and as we head into another weekend still waiting for the official announcement, with nothing more than the painful "negotiations continue" updates, well, panic hasn't set in yet, but it's not far off.

For now, all Winnipeggers can do is continue to hope, be patient, and trust that one of the most well-respected and knowledgeable sports journalists in Canada, who happens to write for a paper that is owned by the person who will also be part of the Winnipeg ownership group, didn't get it wrong.

And we can continue to hate Bettman.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

2010: The best of Sports on TV

Here are my favourite non-live action television sporting moments from 2010. That doesn't quite work, does it. Suppose I'll try again.

Here are my favourite non-game television sporting moments from 2010. Crap. That sucks too.

Below are my favourite televised moments from 2010 that didn't primarily involve live-game coverage. Still awkward, but it'll have to do.

5. Gatorade Replay Series
Available on Rogers Sportsnet (though you'll have to stumble upon it to find it) this one hour program reunites rival highschool teams who had a memorable game cut short or finish in dispute, and then replay it. The games in question typically occurred in the late '90s so it is fascinating to see all these late 20 and early 30 year-olds trying to get back into shape so they don't embarrass themselves in front of the entire community. The producers develop storylines with a few key players from each team and Gatorade brings in a couple of their big-time endorsers (Dwyane Wade, the Mannings, etc.) to serve as honourary coaches. I've seen hockey, basketball and football episodes and all were definitely worth watching.

4. HBO 24/7 Penguins Capitals
The other day I read where someone said that the Oil Change documentary series following the rebirth of the Edmonton Oilers was just as good as the Pens/Caps HBO series, and that it was done on a sliver of the budget. I could not disagree more, aside from the budget of course. The Pens/Caps series is wildy entertaining and offers a real glimpse of behind the scenes action in the life of an NHLer. Oil Change so far has been 15 guys sitting around a boardroom twiddling their thumbs and staring blankly at each other while Kevin Lowe or Steve Tambellini talk in circles so as not to reveal any meaningful or interesting information.

3. Friday Night Lights
Now in it's fifth and final season, and in my opinion, the best sports television show ever. If you've never watched this series, season one is amazing, push through season two, and then prepare to be inspired in every aspect of your life by listening to and watching Coach Eric Taylor, who strikes a perfect balance between tough and fair. Well, maybe not inspired, but thoroughly entertained. The football is Sportscentre worthy and the drama is 90210 level (the original, not the remake). Just watch it.

2. Ken Burns "The Tenth Inning"
The two-part follow-up to Burns' original and epic "Nine Innings" baseball documentary, which outlines the history of the game from the very beginning, is excellent. The Ninth Inning left off in 1990, just prior to the official launch of the steroid era as well as the lockout (1994) that killed baseball in Montreal. Burns weaves his way in and out of stories and topics managing to cover every issue the game has faced over the last 20 years and recreating each historic moment. A must-watch for any baseball lover.

1. ESPN 30 for 30 Series
These 30 documentaries, one for each year in ESPN's existence, are nothing short of superb. Each directed and creatively owned by a notable filmmaker, the 30 riveting stories began airing on TSN in the fall of 2009 and just recently completed their initial run. They aren't necessarily the 30 biggest sports stories from the last 30 years, but rather a look at many that have either never been told or not fully explained and every single episode has something to offer. The most notable in my mind were King's Ransom, Without Bias, The Two Escobars, Once Brothers and The Best There Never Was.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

HBO's 24/7 Pens/Caps Series

Before I watched last night's premiere episode of HBO's "24/7 Penguins/Capitals: Road to the NHL Winter Classic", my friend Frosty emailed and asked if I thought Bruce Boudreau might get fired during the show?

I quickly dismissed the possibility. Here was a coach who had led his team to three straight division championships and even with the playoff underachievement Washington had experienced the last two years, they still appeared to be building towards something bigger. I assumed that Boudreau would at the very least get the opportunity to coach the Caps into the playoffs, and then if they faltered again in the post-season, that would be the time to make a swap.

Now that I've actually seen the show, I can't change my mind quick enough. Naturally, I thought that watching the show would offer an insider's view of coaching in the NHL as well as a deeper look into the overall dynamic of a professional hockey team, that it would be something of a free clinic into the strategising and skill building, the people management, and all the day-to-day details.

And it did. But it all came from Dan Bylsma.

The Penguins coach comes across as intense but intelligent. Demanding yet rewarding. He met with the GM to go over player grades, came up with the "moustache boy" shootout game, and made an effort to get everyone involved. His captain paid him compliments and the entire roster seemed to be confident they had the right man in charge.

All Boudreau did was drop a thousand "F" bombs and address the team with his hand in his pants. Seriously. The look on his face during the third period of the Rangers game when his Caps got shelled 7-0 said it all. He might as well have peed his pants right there on the bench.

Obviously the perception shown on screen of each team was going to be different, what with Pittsburgh riding a lengthy winning streak and Washington a lengthy losing streak. But it shouldn't have been that drastic.

Some other thoughts on a terrifically entertaining show:
  • Interesting to see that while Sid's home locker is in the middle of the room, accessible to everyone, Ovechkin was tucked into a corner with only one stall beside him (belonging to Semin), basically cutting him off from the rest of the team.
  • Seeing Ovechkin shirtless at two different times with multiple gold and diamond studded chains around his neck wouldn't make me feel all that great about his desire to win a championship if I were a Caps fan. Rocket Richard trophies? Yes. Stanley Cups? No.
  • Winning and losing streaks aside, it definitely seemed as though the Pens players liked each other a whole lot more than the Caps did. Hearing Marc Andre-Fleury call Max Talbot a "douche" on the team plane and then everyone, including Max, laugh at the joke was very telling.
  • In the GM department we had one team sitting down together to go over the recent grades for each players performance (Penguins) and another basically throwing up their arms when it was revealed that they were going to be short-handed due to illness and injuries (Capitals). George McPhee didn't quite wave the white flag, but the image of Michael Scott managing Dunder Mifflin did enter my mind.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Program Notice

I never saw this as a blog.

It was always a place for me to post my "articles". I'm young(ish), but I'm old school at heart. I didn't want to blog, I wanted to write as if I were applying for a job as a sports columnist. And I did.

I wanted to write for TSN.ca. For years I sent them my stories and tried to sell them on their need to hire me as a "super-fan" columnist. They never bit, and so I turned here. Reluctantly.

And I posted articles once a week, stuck to my format, and continued to swim against the trend. Like I said, I'm old school. I was the last guy to get a cell phone. Everyone tells me I need to be on Twitter.

Instead, I continued to tell myself that I could make it happen. I went to school with a lot of these media guys, and look, Eric Duhatschek just told his audience what I've been preaching for years. I was mindful of my criticism, style and content, all with an eye towards something bigger and better.

And while I had this little sabbatical from this space the last couple of months, I realized that I didn't miss the writing. At least not the work I was putting into it. I love sports. I mean, I really love them. The pressure, the stats, the drama. I love cap numbers and sabermetrics. I love the Leafs and Jays, the Raps and Bombers, but I never wear "the goggles". I love the world juniors, NFL Sundays, the baseball playoffs, and the PGA Tour.

What I really missed was talking sports with my friends. I've moved around to a few different places, and each time I've had to leave behind a great group of guys. Sure, we can always text. But "pti was awwsum today" just doesn't cut it.

I never saw this as a blog. Now, this is a blog.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

It's All Down Hill From Here

I began forecasting the slippery slope that the NHL is now fully sliding down back in 2008, long before the New Jersey Devils handed Ilya Kovalchuk the most alarming (and according to the powers that be, unethical) contract in the history of North American professional sport.

Back then, shortly after Vinny Lecavalier signed an 11 year $85 million contract, I wrote:

Are teams simply hoping the salary cap will continue to increase, year-after-year, without any recourse? Do they think by the time the last few remaining years of those deals come around, the cap will be $75M or $100M and the contract will actually look cheap? Can they automatically assume that one or two good seasons is enough to project a player's production 5 or 10 years down the line?

It's a nice thought, but...what if that doesn't happen? What if the annual salary cap, after rising a whopping 35% in 4 years, levels off and then a guy you've committed 7 or 8 years and $40-50M to doesn't fulfill expectations? Even worse, what if you have two guys like that? Or three?

It's a dark road the NHL is traveling down, and it's the same trail the NBA burned in the late 90's that lead to people like Jim McIlvane, Tariq Abdul-Wahad, and Austin Croshere earning some $127 million (combined) in salary. This is great news if you're Jeff Finger or Ron Hainsey or any other marginal player who may (or may not) have upside, but for everyone else it means bad times. Unless you cheer for Detroit, each contract from here on out has the potential to bury your franchise for the foreseeable future.

The NBA owners forced a lockout in 1999 not only to put a cap on player salaries, but also to implement the maximum length a contract could run. Teams were doling out 8, 10, even 12 year deals to stars and that in turn increased contract duration expectations around the league. Eager to keep young players away from free agency, GM's began paying on potential instead of production, and tacked on extra years without hesitation.

Remember the deals handed to Larry Johnson, Juwan Howard, Glenn Robinson and numerous other players who were either too young or still unproven? Remember the kind of damage they did to their respective teams?

Larry Johnson 12 years/$84M - 1994
Glenn Robinson 10 years/$68M - 1995
Donyell Marshall 9 years/$42M - 1994

Juwan Howard 7 years/$105M - 1996
Jayson Williams 7 years/$100M - 1999
Brian Grant 7 years/$84M - 2000
Vin Baker 6 years/$86.7M - 1997
Tim Thomas 6 years/$67M - 1999
Bryant Reeves 6 years/$65M - 1997
Antonio McDyess 6 years/$67M - 1998
Tom Gugliotta 6 years/$58.5M - 1998

In a few short years the entire landscape of the NBA changed. Instead of trading players you traded contracts. Where once you had almost every team competing, legitimately trying to win night in and night out, with most having a realistic shot of at least qualifying for the playoffs when training camp opened...all of a sudden you had a clear set of contenders and an equally clear set of pretenders who were fed to the lions and playing for the lottery from day one.

The NBA finally realized guaranteeing several tens of millions of dollars to athletes for a decade or more at a time, regardless of their performance, wasn't working out that well. Didn't exactly lead to motivation. Another factor was injuries. So they capped the length a contract could run for, and proceeded to shorten it again in the next round of CBA negotiating.


It was noted hockey genius Charles Wang who started this particular movement in the NHL, but it wasn't when he gave Rick Dipietro a 15 year contract in 2003. It actually began two years earlier when Wang signed (ahem) Alexei Yashin (10 years/$87.5M) and the Capitals inked Jaromir Jagr (7 years/$77M) to enormous contracts that neither player came close to playing out. In fact, both were paid to leave. Washington ate nearly half of Jagr's contract while he was wearing a Rangers jersey ($3.4M/year), and seven long years from now the Islanders will have squandered $17M in cap space for Yashin to stay home and continue not caring about hockey. Good investments?

In the years since we've seen several hockey players sign ridiculously long contracts and the situation is now unfolding just as it did in basketball. At first it's the stars: the hottest free agents and the best young players score huge extended deals. The rationale is obviously a move to circumvent the cap (more years at less dollars), and also, in the case of restricted free agents, to keep them away from other teams.

The problem isn't with the superstars getting big paydays, it's the length it comes with, and the effect that has on what everyone else can then demand.

As we look back on the recent history of the NBA, we can see the immediate future for the NHL. And it's not a pretty sight.

Now, two years later, the problem is coming to a head. The Kovalchuk deal, along with the contracts given to Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa, while within the rules of the salary cap, are clearly designed to circumvent it. The tail-end of each contract, when each player will be well into his 40's, will pay those players minimal salaries. Because the contracts were signed prior to the player turning 35 years-old, if the player retires before the contract is fulfilled it doesn't count against the individual teams salary cap. Basically it allows a guy like Kovalchuk to be paid $95 million over the first 11 years of his deal while the Devils somehow only take a $6 million cap hit each year.

It's a loop-hole that will certainly be dealt with during the next round of CBA negotiations when a maximum contract length rule will be implemented. But unfortunately by then it might be too late. More than one quarter of NHL teams already have (at least) one contract on their books that will run more than a decade (Chicago, Detroit, New Jersey, NY Islanders, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Washington), and who knows how many more will follow suit before the system can be corrected?