State of the Jays

Even as the Jays predictably fall further and further away from the powerful trio atop the AL East, it's been refreshing to see a trait in this team that has been missing for quite some time: Resiliency.

And no, I don't mean that in a "Vernon Wells won't leave the table until he's finished his third double-cheeseburger" kind of way. I'm talking about overall team scrappiness and a never say die attitude that has translated into gutsy team performances and come from behind wins.

There were several times when this particular edition of the Blue Jays could have folded, when it would've been easy to flip the switch off and let the season get away. The back-to-back ninth inning meltdowns against Tampa in early June, the two losses to start the series against the St.Louis Cardinals later in the month, and more recently, heading into Yankee stadium after being swept by the lowly Cleveland Indians all come to mind.

But each time the Jays faced the prospect of being completely buried in the standings they responded and came away with a much-needed win. For a team with extremely low preseason expectations, that means something. Actually, it means everything. Entering a 'rebuilding phase' is basically another way of telling your fans your going to lose. But if you can actually rebuild without turning into the Pittsburgh Pirates for a few seasons, it allows you to potentially speed up the process because your players haven't forgotten how to win. That can make the transition from up and coming to legitimate far less bumpy.

Normally you would point to the manager as a specific reason or a major contributor in developing successful team qualities and characteristics, but Cito Gaston was brought back to sell tickets, not to be a Major League manager. His atrocious handling of the bullpen, stubborn refusal to alter a stagnant line-up, and total neglect for his bench has cost the Jays far more than any gentle whispers of encouragement to the younger players has helped.

Which leads us to the person who has really put his fingerprints on this operation: Alex Anthopoulos, the boy wonder GM who took control of the franchise, at least from a player development standpoint, last fall. After 15 years of trying to patch holes with mediocre free agents when what this team clearly needed was an entirely new foundation, Anthopoulos has Jays fans eagerly jumping on his bandwagon by presenting a blueprint that actually make sense: Stockpile starting pitching and positional prospects, let them develop together, and then add through free agency when it's time to go over the top. So what if I've been trumpeting the exact same game plan in this space for years? (Really, I'm happy that Anthopoulos, a guy who is only a few years older than me, gets to make 10 times more money than I do, travel around North America in a private jet, stay in five star hotels and talk baseball everyday. I'm not bitter at all, not a bit. Hold on a sec...just have to scream into my pillow here. Okay, all good.)

Anthopoulos began his tenure by making what appears to be a good trade under difficult circumstances when he moved fan-favourite Roy Halladay for a package that included Kyle Drabek and Michael Wallace. Both are big-time prospects with high ceilings who should see playing time in Toronto later this year and both could be full-time big leaguers in 2011. Rather than caving in to the (not outrageous but still unacceptable) contract demands of Marco Scutaro, Anthopoulos smartly chose to replace him with Alex Gonzalez, who leads all shortstops in home runs and RBI. He also stole Brandon Morrow from Seattle, signed John Buck for the bargain price of $2 million and claimed Fred Lewis off waivers. Those moves prove that after only nine months on the job, Anthopoulos has earned our trust.

With a cupboard full of young and talented pitchers accumulated by the previous regime and an ownership-endorsed organizational shift in team-building philosophy, Toronto is finally properly positioned to follow the Tampa Bay model and sneak up on the Red Sox and Yankees in a few years.

Rotation Leading the Surprising Jays

A quick look at the current Jays batting order reveals how heavily this team relies on two things: home runs and cheeseburgers. Whoops, I meant home runs and starting pitching.

With zero everyday players batting .300 (Vernon Wells is leading at .286) and the home run totals predictably slowing from their ridiculous pace, Toronto owes their surprising record mostly to a quartet of starters who have done considerably more than just ease the loss of Roy Halladay. They've somehow managed to turn the loss of the best pitcher in baseball into a more complete unit.

When Doc was sent to Philadelphia in the offseason it was supposed to mark the beginning of the end for the Blue Jay rotation. Gone was the man who bordered on invincibility every fifth day, the guy who could handle Boston or New York and anyone else, they guy who was destined to throw a perfect game, and in his place were two inexperienced prospects, a reclamation project, and a player who hadn't thrown a big league pitch since the summer of 2008. Needless to say, expectations were not high for this group.

But nearly halfway through the season three of those question marks have performed solidly and the reclamation project is showing promising signs. Collectively the group has been churning out quality starts (6IP+ and 3 earned runs or less) which has allowed Toronto to capitalize on their home run binge and win games.

Sean Marcum, who had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and missed the entire 2009 season, has more than bounced back. In 14 starts this year Marcum has 10 quality and is second in the AL in innings pitched (92.1) and 5th in WHIP (1.10). Every time he gets the ball he seems to take a shutout into the 6th inning, and right now he's the odds on leader to replace Halladay as my favourite Jay. (I came close to awarding the official title to Aaron Hill after 'the trade' but ultimately decided to wait, so it's currently vacant. Glad we cleared that up.)

It wasn't long ago that many of us pointed to J.P. Riccardi passing on Troy Tulowitzki in the 2006 draft and instead selecting Ricky Romero as ample proof that Riccardi was not fit to be a MLB GM. While Tulowitzki would certainly look good (okay very good) filling the black hole that has been the Blue Jays shortstop position, Romero has quietly developed into one of the best young starters in baseball. He has made 13 starts including nine quality, is 2nd in the AL in strikeouts (91), fourth in innings pitched (90.1), and has two complete games to go with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.29 ERA. On top of those sterling numbers, the kid has some serious moxie and if he was anywhere but where he is, where the spotlight is hogged by two star-studded rotations and another that is all #1 picks, Romero would be much more heralded.

After making 17 starts last year, the soon-to-be 24 year-old Brett Cecil has made 10 starts this year (prior to last night) and has seven wins, seven quality starts, a 0.99 WHIP and a 3.22 ERA to show for it. Cecil, who was drafted 38th overall in 2007, has quickly blossomed at the Major League level.

When Toronto acquired Brendan Morrow from Seattle for Brandon League over the winter, it was seen as little more than two teams exchanging prospects that both had grown tired of. While League has been his usual Jekyll and Hyde self for the Mariners, Morrow, who many Blue Jay insiders claim to have the best 'stuff' of any Toronto pitcher, has put a slow April and May behind him to rack up three straight quality starts. While he continues to fight control issues (his 38 BB's are second in the AL), Morrow happens to be about $600,000 cheaper this year than League and at only 25 years-old, still has plenty of upside.

The combined 2010 salary commitment for those four Blue Jay starting pitchers is just over $2 million, or roughly the same as what the Yankees pay their bat boy. While none of them are anywhere close to replacing Halladay on an individual basis, together they're giving Jays fans reason to believe that this young and talented rotation could be the bridge to October baseball.

Or at the very least meaningful baseball in September.

The Silver Lining(s)?

If you're a Toronto Blue Jays fan, you've probably spent the last week and maybe even the last few months trying to talk yourself into paying attention to the new season.

As Jays fans we've already been doing this for a number of years, so it's not totally new ground. The difference this time is that limited hope for success has now been replaced with no hope. Like none, nada, zilch. We all know there is absolutely zero chance the 2010 Blue Jays will make the playoffs. With our division and our line-up, that's just the way it is.

Instead we need to find reasons that will intrigue us enough to follow this campaign rather than simply taking a pass and checking out until 2011 or 2012.

Here are the five best reasons to care about this Blue Jays season:

1. The legitimate building blocks

If the Jays are ever going to compete in the AL East they will need to follow the Tampa model, and (hallelujah!) it appears new GM Alex Anthopoulos is actually aware of this. What this means is that rather than throwing away money by adding free agents to a team that isn't anywhere close to being a playoff contender, the Jays will patiently develop their own prospects and then, when the time is appropriate, dip into free agency to compliment the roster and plug any holes.

As of right now, this roster has only three players that can truly be counted on to be a part of the future: Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Vernon Wells. These three are all under contract for at least the next three years and have all proven they are capable major league players. Hill and Lind are both coming off impressive breakout offensive years and both will need to prove it wasn't a fluke by backing those numbers up again this year. Wells has regressed in each of the last three seasons and has a horrifically bad contract, but he is still a known commodity that can contribute. These three players are the foundation and core that the position players will be built around, and 2010 will be an important measuring stick to determine exactly how good this group can be, and what type of players they will need to be surrounded with when it comes time to actually compete.

2. Randy Ruiz

Since being signed by the Reds in 1999, Ruiz has been a part of eleven different franchises and has played a grand total of 55 games in the big leagues. Ten teams have given up on the 32 year-old and at times this spring it sounded a lot like the Jays were about to be the eleventh despite the fact that Ruiz hit 10 homeruns in only 115 AB's for Toronto last year. Ruiz has a career .378 OBP and .909 OPS in the minors and tore up the Puerto Rican Winter League this past offseason. The guy can flat out hit, and if the Jays give him a real opportunity, he will be the non-suprise surprise of the season.

3. The fake umps
Watching the two guys dressed in replica umpire gear, complete with face masks, mimicking the home plate ump from the first row behind the plate is like listening to someone do the Zohan voice or watching contestants on Wipeout destroy their bodies - it just never gets old.

4. Development of the young arms

Anthopoulos has a bevy of young and talented pitchers that are at various levels of their development and this year we'll find out if any of Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Mark Rzepczynski, and perhaps Kyle Drabek will develop into dependable major league starters or possibly even something more than that. Morrow and Romero are currently in the rotation but all five are likely to get starts at some point and the pressure is on both the management and the players themselves to do more than just gain experience. They need to learn how to perform in front of the rabid crowds at Fenway Park and Yankee stadium.

4.5 The Replacements

Lyle Overbay, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gonzalez and John Buck are all on the last (or only) year of their contracts and are nothing more than stop-gap players. None have a long-term future with the organization which means four new fielding positions are likely to open up for the 2011 season. Brett Wallace, who was obtained as part of the Roy Halladay trade, will have the opportunity to play both first and third base in the second half of the season and another prospect acquired in the Halladay deal, catcher Travis d'Arnaud could also get a look. Assuming Travis Snider figures things out and gets on his way to becoming the player he is projected to be, all of a sudden the 2011 and beyond Jays have considerably more potential for friskiness. And if the rumoured signing of 19 year-old Cuban defector Adeiny Hechevarria ever becomes official (his $10 million contract is apparently being held up by Canadian customs), the Jays may have finally found their shortstop of the future.

5. Roy Halladay

Even though Doc is no longer a Jay, he was traded to the National League which means Toronto fans don't have to worry about cheering for him at the expense of our own club. If he had gone to the hated Red Sox or despicable Yankees, Jays fans would've been forced to cut ties forever with our long-time hero. But because he ended up in the 'other' league we can continue to follow him closely and root for him as if he were still one of our own. Watching Roy destroy the weaker line-ups that populate the Senior Circuit (we could be looking at a Koufax-like year from Halladay) will provide a certain amount of relief in what will otherwise be a very difficult year to be a Jays fan.

Blue Jays Report Card - Part I - The Bats

Well June is almost over, isn’t it great to have Dustin McGowan back in the rotation?

With the Jays rightfully reluctant to part with prospects in a bid to beef up the roster for a pennant run, why not simply part with dollars and try to sign Pedro Martinez?

The Jays would add a once-legendary veteran to the rotation who still might have the potential to be brilliant and Pedro would have the chance to stick it to Boston and New York. And if it didn’t work out, if Martinez is indeed finished, all it would cost Toronto is a few extra bucks. Win-win.

The Jays saved $10 million when AJ Burnett left town and combined with the strength of the loonie (and the resulting positive effect on the bottom-line for Canada’s only MLB team) you would think Toronto would be inclined to add a player or two as a peace offering to a dwindling fan-base.

Apparently not.

We’ll get to the rest of the pitching situation tomorrow, but in today’s Part I of the Blue Jays Report Card, we’ll examine the bats (which started the year off scorching but have since come crashing back down to earth)…

Marco Scutaro – Has been nothing short of outstanding this year, far exceeding both defensive and offensive expectations and providing a toughness and baseball smarts element that had been sorely missing on what seems to be a mostly un-inspired team. Scutaro is among the league leaders in runs-scored and has been right around the .400 mark in OBP all year. And his work on the field has been tremendous – just a single error through 71 games. However (and this is a monstrous ‘however’), he is in a contract year. Repeat: Contract Year. He’ll be 34 entering next season and hopefully Jays management allows another team to overpay him. Grade: A

Aaron Hill – He’s hit the ball hard from the first day he arrived in the bigs only this year the ball is really starting to carry for him. Hill had 28 career homeruns entering the season and with 15 already, may surpass that total this year alone. After he missed the final 100 games last year with concussion problems that lingered all the way into the offseason, the second baseman got right back on the career path that was (and will) eventually going to lead him to the All-Star game. Grade: A

Adam Lind – The most consistent big-situation hitter the Jays have had all year and arguably the most powerful bat in the line-up. Actually, the argument is over. With 25 homers in his last 157 games, Lind is Toronto's heaviest hitter. He also leads the team in back rubs from Cito which I have been tracking.

The list looks like this:

Adam Lind - 4
Gene Tenace - 3
Everyone else - 0

Grade: A-

Scott Rolen – If I could just get myself to accept what Rolen is at this point (slap hitter and above average defender) instead of focusing on what he isn’t (home run hitter, run producer and everyday player) it would be a lot easier to cheer for the guy. It’s just that his $12 million salary is obscuring my vision. Grade: B+

Rod Barajas – Provides excellent bang for his buck at the catching position and has nurtured a young and unproven pitching staff to solid results. At the dish Barajas is on pace to set career highs in batting average, RBI, and walks. It'll be interesting to see if he sticks around one more year to bridge the gap until J.P. Arencibia is ready to take over full-time. Grade: B

Lyle Overbay – I’ve referred to him before as Lyle Doubleplay and Lyle Underbay but now I’m thinking he might be more Lyle Averagebay. Which isn’t all bad, it’s just that he created bigger expectations after batting .312 while hitting 22 homers and collecting 90+ RBI his first year in a Blue Jays uniform. It turns out he’s actually a 15 homer .270 hitter and 70 RBI guy. Again, not all bad. He plays a decent first base but I’m entirely ready for Adam Lind as our first-baseman and Jason Bay in left-field. Grade: B-

Kevin Millar – I have to admit I was a little confused by his signing over the winter, I just didn't think the soon-to-be 38 year-old Millar had anything left to offer. His OBP and slugging percentage have now declined four straight years but his clubhouse presence and professionalism have clearly aided the team. Plus, if the Jays do somehow stay in the pennant or wild card race, we can surely depend on Millar to come up with a catch phrase to rally around. 'Cowboy Up' can't be that hard to top, right? Grade: C+

Jose Bautista – I would have preferred to see Joe Inglett in Bautista’s bench role this year simply because Inglett is more versatile and he batted .297 with a .355 OBP in 2008. About the only area I see Bautista ahead of Inglett is in drawing walks and hearing. Check out those listeners to the right. Grade: C

Vernon Wells & Alex Rios – For the first time in a Jays Report Card I’m grading two players together. The reason is because I couldn’t stomach the thought of devoting two separate paragraphs to our 3rd and 4th hitters (for most of the year) who have combined for 15 homers and 68 RBI and have pretty much taken our season hostage. The pop-up artist and the strikeout artist have a combined batting average with runners in scoring position of -.126. I know that's a negative number but I assure you it's true. The gruesome twosome will make (steal?) $30 million a year for the next three seasons and I can’t imagine any of you out there feel good about this. Aside from the burger joints Wells frequents and the remote control car businesses Rios keeps afloat. Grades: D

Travis Snider – His 2008 September call-up and opening week of the 2009 season have Jays fan salivating at the thought of his impact on the future of the franchise. Snider is currently in the minors and injured but assuming he gets healthy it's likely he will be recalled by September at the latest. Grade: N/A