Rotation Leading the Surprising Jays

A quick look at the current Jays batting order reveals how heavily this team relies on two things: home runs and cheeseburgers. Whoops, I meant home runs and starting pitching.

With zero everyday players batting .300 (Vernon Wells is leading at .286) and the home run totals predictably slowing from their ridiculous pace, Toronto owes their surprising record mostly to a quartet of starters who have done considerably more than just ease the loss of Roy Halladay. They've somehow managed to turn the loss of the best pitcher in baseball into a more complete unit.

When Doc was sent to Philadelphia in the offseason it was supposed to mark the beginning of the end for the Blue Jay rotation. Gone was the man who bordered on invincibility every fifth day, the guy who could handle Boston or New York and anyone else, they guy who was destined to throw a perfect game, and in his place were two inexperienced prospects, a reclamation project, and a player who hadn't thrown a big league pitch since the summer of 2008. Needless to say, expectations were not high for this group.

But nearly halfway through the season three of those question marks have performed solidly and the reclamation project is showing promising signs. Collectively the group has been churning out quality starts (6IP+ and 3 earned runs or less) which has allowed Toronto to capitalize on their home run binge and win games.

Sean Marcum, who had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and missed the entire 2009 season, has more than bounced back. In 14 starts this year Marcum has 10 quality and is second in the AL in innings pitched (92.1) and 5th in WHIP (1.10). Every time he gets the ball he seems to take a shutout into the 6th inning, and right now he's the odds on leader to replace Halladay as my favourite Jay. (I came close to awarding the official title to Aaron Hill after 'the trade' but ultimately decided to wait, so it's currently vacant. Glad we cleared that up.)

It wasn't long ago that many of us pointed to J.P. Riccardi passing on Troy Tulowitzki in the 2006 draft and instead selecting Ricky Romero as ample proof that Riccardi was not fit to be a MLB GM. While Tulowitzki would certainly look good (okay very good) filling the black hole that has been the Blue Jays shortstop position, Romero has quietly developed into one of the best young starters in baseball. He has made 13 starts including nine quality, is 2nd in the AL in strikeouts (91), fourth in innings pitched (90.1), and has two complete games to go with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.29 ERA. On top of those sterling numbers, the kid has some serious moxie and if he was anywhere but where he is, where the spotlight is hogged by two star-studded rotations and another that is all #1 picks, Romero would be much more heralded.

After making 17 starts last year, the soon-to-be 24 year-old Brett Cecil has made 10 starts this year (prior to last night) and has seven wins, seven quality starts, a 0.99 WHIP and a 3.22 ERA to show for it. Cecil, who was drafted 38th overall in 2007, has quickly blossomed at the Major League level.

When Toronto acquired Brendan Morrow from Seattle for Brandon League over the winter, it was seen as little more than two teams exchanging prospects that both had grown tired of. While League has been his usual Jekyll and Hyde self for the Mariners, Morrow, who many Blue Jay insiders claim to have the best 'stuff' of any Toronto pitcher, has put a slow April and May behind him to rack up three straight quality starts. While he continues to fight control issues (his 38 BB's are second in the AL), Morrow happens to be about $600,000 cheaper this year than League and at only 25 years-old, still has plenty of upside.

The combined 2010 salary commitment for those four Blue Jay starting pitchers is just over $2 million, or roughly the same as what the Yankees pay their bat boy. While none of them are anywhere close to replacing Halladay on an individual basis, together they're giving Jays fans reason to believe that this young and talented rotation could be the bridge to October baseball.

Or at the very least meaningful baseball in September.

Mailbag V1.0

You know how some writers get a free column every once in a while where instead of coming up with an intriguing angle or shedding light on a hidden subject, they simply answer questions in a mailbag format?

Well, I think you might know where I'm going with this. The only thing is that I didn't exactly have the option of selecting real questions from my readers (both are extremely busy) so I had to go ahead and make them up myself.

Here we go...

Q: Is the American baseball media really this dumb?

A: Over the weekend Roy Halladay stopped the Mets eight game winning streak and improved his own record to 5-1. He has three complete games (including two shutouts), a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio, and a 1.47 ERA. Anyone who followed the Blue Jays over the last 10 years will tell you these stats are not surprising in the least, especially with Halladay now pitching in the inferior National League, and yet the American baseball media is acting like they're seeing Bigfoot.

Q: What was Chris Bosh thinking with his recent Twitter posts?

A: I could easily say that Bosh is just a technology junky, another of the new generation of famous people who embraces social media and thinks everyone else wants to know where he ate supper last night or how warm it is in Dallas...but that wouldn't be the real answer. Bosh tweeted the two questions about his upcoming free agency as a pre-emptive strike. He basically informed everyone in Toronto that he isn't coming back, and that's fine because Bosh is a 26 year-old power forward who can't score in crunch time and has plateaued as a player (Pts, Reb, Ass, FG% have all been the same since his 3rd year in the league). The guy always starts great and then wears down over the long regular season and ultimately cools off as the games become more important. Bosh is not worth a max contract in Toronto because he will never be the best player on a championship team. Am I excited about a Andrea Bargnani/Hedo Turkoglu led team in 2010-11? No. But this team has won zero playoff series since Bosh arrived. If this franchise is ever going to get to the next level, or even the second round of the playoffs, it won't be Bosh who leads it there.

Q: Which of the two Canadian teams remaining in the NHL playoffs will advance further?

A: This question is actually considerably more difficult than it appears on the surface. The Canucks were a far superior team than the Canadiens during the regular season and have the scoring depth that Montreal can only dream of. However, the West still has all of the best teams remaining making the road forward much more difficult. If Vancouver can get past the Blackhawks (112 regular season points), they'll still have to face either San Jose (113) or Detroit (102 and still not dead even though they're down 3 zip) in a monstrous semi-final. Montreal on the other hand, has the hottest goalie currently playing (although Tuuka Rask may still have something to say about that) and a far easier path to the finals. If the Habs knock out the Pens they won't be the underdog against either of Boston (91) or Philadelphia (88) in the next round and could very possibly end up playing for the Cup. Vancouver was my pre-playoff pick, so I'm sticking with them, but the table has definitely been set in Montreal's favour.

Q: Is it that big of a stretch to assume if you stick your glove in someones face and you get your fingers in their mouth you may get bit?

A: If Daniel Carcillo is the one who allegedly gets bit does anyone really care?

Q: Was Tiger Woods missing the cut last weekend the best thing that could have happened to him?

A: Two weeks ago I suggested Tiger go bad boy and last Friday at Quail Hollow he answered with a tremendously calculated move. What, you thought his game really was that bad? Not a chance. Firing a 7 over 79 was no accident. We're already hearing plenty of "Tiger will never be the same" arguments and reading "Has Tiger lost it?" articles. Just like that, Tiger has put himself in a sympathetic position. Well played Tiger.

Q: Are the Blue Jays actually better than we gave them credit for?

A: In a word: No. At 15-13 on the season, the Jays current record is absolutely better than expected...and it's because they're playing above their heads. Toronto has had what feels like more 9th inning comebacks and two out RBI's in the first five weeks than they've had in the last five years and other than Aaron Hill, they've been pretty much injury free. The Jays are 8-3 on the road, which means they should go about 25-45 away from the 'Dome the rest of the way.

Doc's Last Start?

It appears the Jays have gone past the point of no return regarding the future of Roy Halladay and will likely trade the former (2003) and future (2009? 2010?) Cy Young winner sometime before the July 31st trading deadline.

Or not.

The message is entirely unclear. J.P. Riccardi (rightly) continues to hold out for the best deal possible but when reading between the quotes uttered by Halladay, the indication is that Roy may have already emotionally moved on. Even though the soft deadline Riccardi initially set of July 28 for trading Halladay has already passed, I still think ultimately they'll move him. His value now is infinitely higher than it will be in the winter or at next year's deadline.

That made today's start in Seattle quite possibly the final time Blue Jays fans will see Halladay pitch in a Toronto uniform, and here is the CSJ live blog that followed it...

3:31 - Ouch. Our first look at the broadcast team and today's analyst is Rance Mulliniks. Why can't Rogers throw us a damn bone and give us Pat Tabler for all 162 games?

3:32 - Play-by-play man Jamie Campbell and Mulliniks discuss whether Halladay is the best pitcher in Jays history. As much as I love Doc (and it is indeed a sizable man-crush), Dave Stieb has to sit atop the list. Stieb has the franchise record for wins (176 to Halladay's 142), has the only no-hitter a Blue Jays pitcher has ever thrown, and he won the World Series in 1992. It's not even close.

3:37 - Today's Jays line-up features Kevin Millar. Kevin Freaking Millar. Even with the lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith on the mound for the Mariners, this has to be an F-U move by Cito to me personally. Millar was washed up two years ago and his only current motivation for playing is going back to Boston three times a year to reminisce. Why aren't the Jays trying Lind at first?

3:42 - Aaron Hill hits his 295th line-drive of the season. Ok fine, I made that up, but he continues to hit everything hard. This liner gets caught for the second out, but the point is Hill has quickly risen to the elite-level. He may not be the best second-baseman in baseball, but he's in the discussion.

3:46 - Rowland-Smith retires the Jays in order so I flip over to ESPN.com to see a breaking report that says the team that has been most prominently mentioned as a Halladay destination, the Phillies, are about to land Cliff Lee from Cleveland. Ahhhh, maybe this isn't going to be Doc's last start as a Jay?

3:50 - Doc sits down Franklin Gutierrez for his first strikeout of the afternoon but Jose Lopez pulls a double down the line to ensure Halladay doesn't throw a no-no in his Jays finale.

3:51 - Luckily for every team facing Seattle, Ken Griffey Jr. hits clean-up for the Mariners (and it's 2009 not 1999), and is up next. Inning over.

3:56 - The Jays, most notably Rios and Wells, combine to make Rowland-Smith throw a total of five pitches to get through the top of the second. Sportsnet shows a graphic that shows Mariners right-fielder Michael Saunders is the 10th Canadian to play for Seattle. Then Campbell asks Mulliniks if he could name two more? Then silence. Then Campbell offers a huge hint that results in Mulliniks mentioning former teammate Rob Ducey. I'll help you out here Rance: Eric Bedard.

4:01 - Halladay hits Kenji Johjima with an inside pitch that sounded on TV like it hit the bottom of the bat. But since Roy doesn't argue or complain I assume the ump made the right call. Then Jack Hannahan hits a grounder to Millar at first who bobbles it but still tags him out only the ump calls Hannahan safe. This time Halladay (and Millar) vehemently argue the call which makes me believe the ump got it wrong. The replay shows he did.

4:06 - Former Jay Chris Woodward lines a single to left but Jose Bautista nails Johjima at home with another great throw to keep the game scoreless.

4:09 - Doc k's the Canadian kid Saunders. Still bagels on the board.

4:12 - The Jays catch a break when Lopez drops a Rod Barajas pop-up but an out-of-shape Millar blows it by getting thrown out at second. Mulliniks tells viewers "that was not a base-running error by Millar". Well, I'm here to say that was definitely a base-running error. Lopez was running towards the right-field foul line and dropped the ball towards the stands, then let it roll while shaking his hand before realizing Millar and his cement feet were nowhere near second.

4:19 - Marco Scutaro pops up to end the Jays half of the third. Lost amid the constant Halladay trade speculation is what to do with Marco Scutaro? The 33 year-old short-stop and soon to be free-agent is having a career year and will surely get a significant raise over the $1.1 million he's making this year...but what is he worth moving forward? His defence has been better than expected and his professionalism and grit are desperately needed but his 2009 OBP (.388) is 50 points above his career average (.335) and he's going to set personal bests in almost every offensive category (AB's, R, H, 2B, HR, RBI, SB, BB), giving himself tremendous bargaining power. I am extremely worried about the career-year heading into free-agency syndrome.

4:22 - Ichiro lays down a bunt and pretty much flies to first base, not even drawing a throw from the fielding Halladay. So cheap.

4:26 - Ichiro reaches third base with two out but it's Griffey's turn to bat again. Advantage Doc, who induces a weak pop-up from the former All-Star.

4:33 - With Rowland-Smith continuing his Roy Halladay (or maybe even Mark Buehrle) impersonation the Jays go down in order quickly in the fourth. When the real Halladay heads back out, Shelton leads off the Mariners fourth with a bloop single that leaves Halladay smoldering (four hits but only two balls hit hard combined with multiple errors to create unwarranted baserunners). Of course Roy being Roy, he doesn't let it get to him. He re-focuses and gets out of the jam like he's done a million other times over the course of his career.

4:42 - Vernon Wells swings at the first pitch he sees and pops it up. Shocking. Then Millar swings at strike three and I punch myself in the face.

4:49 - Doc throws five pitches to get the first two outs in the bottom of the fifth but then gets in a battle with Lopez who hits a solo homer on a 3-2 count to give the Mariners a 1-0 lead. Griffey and his .209 average somehow manage to drive a double to left-center but Roy gets Shelton on another strike-out to end the inning.

4:59 - In his 15th start Rowland-Smith has a no-hitter going through six innings as the Jays threaten to make Roy Halladay's potential final start all too similar to so many of his previous starts: A great pitching performance wasted by a lack of offence.

5:07 - Halladay goes 1-2-3 in the sixth but is up to 94 pitches on the day. It'll be interesting to see how many they let him throw, with a deal potentially looming.

5:10 - Hill laces a single to left to break up the no-no and Adam Lind promptly crushes a homerun that quickly put the Jays on top 2-1. Win #143 is on the way!

5:19 - Following an error by Hill (on another cheap bunt by the M's, who obviously know they are overmatched at the hands of Halladay), Ichiro slaps a single to right to put runners on first and second with nobody out. Doc gets Gutierrez to pop up but then the red-hot Lopez (3 for 4) singles to load the bases. That actually sets up pretty well for Toronto because Griffey is at-bat and should be due for a double play.

5:26 - On cue Griffey officially ruins the party, hitting his second consecutive double (unimaginable) and driving in two runs to give the Mariners the lead back, 3-2. Griffey now has a whopping 16 doubles on the year.

5:30 - Doc strikes out Shelton for the third time today and Johjima flies out to end the rally, but the damage is done. And so might Halladay's career as a Toronto Blue Jay.

5:34 - Mark Lowe relieves Rowland-Smith, and the Jays make him throw a total of eight pitches to complete his inning of work. Way to make an effort boys!

5:40 - Roy's day is over, his line: 7IP, 11 hits, 3 runs, 0 BB, 6 K and 115 pitches. Not the normally dominant performance you usually see out of Halladay, but another quality start that was definitely good enough to win with. Brandon League replaces him and since the Jays are not protecting a lead, I would expect League to get the job done in the eighth.

5:44 - And League does. We head to the top of the ninth with the Jays trailing 3-2 and Halladay in line to take the loss.

5:51 - Seattle closer David Aardsma walks Hill to start the ninth, but Lind and Rolen follow with strike outs, leaving Rios as the only thing standing between Roy Halladay and another painful loss.

5:53 - Rios is no longer standing.

5:54 - Game over. Is this the end of the 'Doc' Halladay era in Toronto?

Good-bye Roy?

If it does indeed happen, if he does really get traded, it will be hard to see Roy Halladay go. Very hard.

As Jays fans, we've been treated to watching the best pitcher in baseball the last five years, and our admiration for him - his demeanor, his work ethic and talent - is considerable.

But ultimately, moving him is necessary.

If you want to watch one great start every fifth day, keeping Halladay makes sense. If your goal is to play more than 162 games a year (Hello Playoffs, you may not remember us but we're the Toronto Blue Jays!), trading 'Doc' for multiple prospects is the only way to make it happen.

If the Jays could get Manny Parra and prospects Alcides Escobar (SS) and Matt Gamel (3B) from the Brewers (or a similar-type package from someone else) in exchange for Halladay (cnnsi.com writer Jon Heyman speculates)...that would be awesome. It might even save J.P. Riccardi his job. Seriously. An infield of Aaron Hill, Escobar, Gamel and possibly Adam Lind (after next year when Overbay's contract runs out, or sooner if Overybay is also traded) would be very promising and just as importantly, under contract control the next few years. That means cheap.

A rotation featuring any five of Ricky Romero, Sean Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond and Manny Parra (again all are under team contract control) would offer depth to protect against injury, and on paper appears very solid overall.

Obviously Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, because of their contracts, are going to be in Toronto for the foreseeable future (2014 if you're actually counting, but I wouldn't recommend it) and have to factor into any equation, but it's not like they aren't talented players. Both still have the potential and ability to bounce back, to perform like they did prior to receiving a combined $196 million. No really, they do. It could happen.

Even with the Pop-Up artist (Wells) and the Strike-out artist (Rios) eating up over $30 million a year going forward, the group discussed above along with Travis Snider completing the outfield, makes the Toronto roster look a lot like the Tampa Bay team that began developing a couple years ago.

And that is a good thing. A very good thing. The Rays have shown fellow A.L. East fodder (hello Baltimore and Toronto) how to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, and guess what? It's not by trying to spend with them! After years of wasting money on free agents in hopeless efforts to keep up with their free-spending big brothers, throwing away millions on players who were never going to be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, Tampa finally tried something different. Of course all the top-end draft picks helped them, but still, they proved the way to sneak past the Yanks and Sox and into the playoffs isn't by spending. It's by developing. Push through as many high-end prospects and break them all in at the same time. Let them build and grow together, experience the ups and downs of Major League baseball, and then cross your fingers it works out.

Oh, and maybe hire a new-age goofy-looking but strategically sound manager to run the team. Just a hunch.

Blue Jays Report Card - Part II - The Arms

From Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com on the struggles of Vernon Wells...

Wells' travails make for an intriguing test case in selective media overkill. When Red Sox DH David Ortiz was homer-less in mid-May, he was the target of incessant speculation in Boston and beyond. Did Ortiz's power outage stem from problems with his wrist, his knee, his eyes or his lack of a swagger? Did he miss Manny Ramirez, or was he really 36 years old instead of 33? Naturally, with no evidence other than Ortiz's statistical decline, the performance-enhancer freight train also chugged its way into the picture.

Wells, in comparison, has gotten a pass. His performance this season has been overshadowed in part by the ridiculous run of injuries to the Blue Jays' pitching staff. But he's Exhibit A that there's an advantage to playing in Toronto besides the terrific ethnic cuisine.

Blue Jays first baseman Kevin Millar, who spent three years in Boston, said a struggling star is bound to get more breathing room while tucked away in Canada. No surprise there.

"In this market, guys are very fortunate when they go through struggles, because it's not magnified by any means," Millar said. "You throw up a 1-for-10 in Philadelphia, New York or Boston, and it's the end of the world.

"I'm not saying any struggle is easy, because Vernon is definitely trying to cure his thing and get out of it. But you're definitely fortunate that you're in another country and you're playing for the Blue Jays and you've got three beat writers instead of 40."

Translation: Come to Toronto where you can suck and no one will care.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Jays. Should someone tell Kevin Millar we have the internet up here?

Anyway, on to Part II of the Blue Jays report card...

Roy Halladay – At the time he went down (trying not to cry and shaking my head in disgust) with injury, Doc lead the majors in wins, innings pitched, walks allowed and awesomeness. If you’re a true Jays fan, you never miss a Roy Halladay start. The fact that there was even a little talk earlier in the season about Zack Greinke being the best pitcher in the AL is like saying the Jonas Brothers are a better than Pearl Jam. Yes, Greinke had a nice run...for nine or ten starts. Halladay has been lights out for eight years now. Grade: A+

Scott Downs – Downs has been truly amazing since the start of the 2007 season but I wonder if hurting himself while getting out of the batters box will somehow cause a seismic shift in his karma. I mean, when opposing major league hitters step into the box and say to themselves, "this guy got injured during the most basic play in baseball" they would have to be confident, right? Grade: A

Brett Cecil - The 38th overall pick from the 2007 draft has made five starts this year as a 22 year-old and they break down like this: one excellent outing, three very solid performances and a beatdown in Fenway. I'll take that. Grade: B+

Ricky Romero – Ok, so maybe J.P. didn't screw up this pick in the 2005 draft as bad as originally reported. Romero has looked good as a rookie, throwing seven quality starts in only nine appearances and sports a very respectable 3.59 ERA. Yes, the end of the steroid era has changed the pitching landscape, significantly altering and improving the stats for every average and below-average pitcher, but Romero isn't the next Gustavo Chacin. No he's not. He better not be. Please, don't let him be. Grade: B

Brian Tallet – I’ve always enjoyed his work, especially when he was playing Hyde on ‘That 70s show’. Pretty remarkable that an actor was able to change careers like that and I like how he downplayed it by using a stage name like Brian Tallet. And now, transitioning from relief to starting? That is impressive. Hyde struggles with his command at times and has had two horrendous starts (June 14 vs. Florida & April 29 @ KC) but overall he's been very valuable. Grade: B

Scott Richmond – I did not like the way Cito skipped Richmond’s turn in the rotation a few weeks back and apparently Richmond didn't either, because he threw up a dominating eight inning, five hit, 11 strikeout game in his return to a starting role. Also, it's pretty cool that he can perform at a major league level while mostly looking like he's 30 seconds away from falling asleep. Grade: B

Jason Fraser – Reason #9624 why bullpens can be slapped together in any way, shape or form: Frasor was absolutely ignored by previous manager John Gibbons but has reappeared in Cito Gaston’s bullpen and has been very good. I would trade high on every reliever I ever developed. You know, assuming I was a big league GM. Grade: B

Brandon League – Great when the score isn’t close. Grade: B-

Jesse Carlson – Reason #9625 why bullpens can be slapped together in any way, shape or form: For the most part, you never know what you're going to get from one year to next. Grade: C+

Shawn Camp - Before his brutal appearance in Tuesday's game against Cincinnati, Camp had been pitching well, allowing only four runs over his last 16 innings and just a single run in his last eight. Of course prior to that he had a horrific three game stretch in late April and early May that probably would've buried him if our entire pitching staff wasn't held together by band-aids. Grade: C+

B.J. Ryan – How Riccardi didn’t dump Ryan’s contract last November is unfathomable. B.J. came back last year after missing ’07 following Tommy John surgery and posted solid numbers (32 saves, 2.95 ERA & only 4 blown saves) that should have made him marketable on the trade front despite the fact Jays fans could see the cracks forming. His $10 million salary was cheaper than what Brian Fuentes received from Anaheim this past offseason when several contending clubs were looking for an established closer. Throw in the fact that with Downs, Carlson and Tallet, the Jays bullpen was flush with lefties, and righty Brandon League was continually thought of as a potential option to finish games, and you understand why I nearly hurl my remote through the TV everytime I see Ryan enter a game. Now, with 19 hits and 14 walks allowed in only 18 unforgettably terrible innings, the Jays might be forced to eat the remaining $15 million on his contract. Grade: D-

Casey Janssen – It’s beginning to look like the spectacular year he had in ’07 was the end of his career rather than the beginning. Grade: N/A