A CSJ Special Edition: The Decision

Heading into last night's one-hour Lebronathon, I was fairly certain "The Decision" would be a massive letdown.

I wanted to hear James say New York, or New Jersey, or Chicago, or even LA...basically anywhere but Cleveland. Not that I have anything against Cleveland, I just didn't want the last two weeks (or two months, or actually two years) of free agent hype, along with the enormous amount of time I invested in following it, to be all for nothing. I needed change to make it worth while and even with Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer and closer to home, Chris Bosh, already having changed addresses this summer, Lebron was really what this whole ordeal was all about.

Despite the fact that a strong rumour emerged Thursday morning forecasting James joining the Miami Heat, I fully expected Lebron to say he loved the entire process and that he had a lot of great meetings with a bunch of teams that all provided tremendous opportunities, but ultimately, he had to stay home in Cleveland. Just had to. I mean, who goes on TV to murder a cities sports fans? (Besides Brian Burke of course.) If he was really going to leave, this certainly couldn't be the way he'd do it, right?

Then Lebron confirmed that the next chapter in his life would be based from Miami. I couldn't believe it. He actually left Cleveland.

Looking back, it really shouldn't have been that shocking. James, Dwyane Wade and Bosh all signed short contract extensions back in 2007 when they hit restricted free agency. Over the last few years speculation grew that the group had grown tight while playing for the US national team and dreamed of being on the same NBA team. Then everyone's favourite rational NBA analyst Steven A. Smith stated at the start of the free agency period that the "Lebron/Wade/Bosh trio would all sign in Miami, it's done." The three reportedly had dinner together in Miami last weekend.

On Tuesday word leaked that the Raptors and Cavs had reached an agreement on a sign-and-trade scenario that would see Bosh join Lebron in Cleveland, pending Bosh's approval. Fans were told Lebron was encouraging Bosh to join him in Cleveland, but Bosh quickly squashed the idea and voila: instant alibi. Lebron wanted to stay, he really did, but how could he say no to Wade and Bosh in one city?

After Stoudemire signed in New York and Boozer in Chicago in recent days, both players openly tried to recruit Lebron to their new teams. Yet when Wade and Bosh were asked about Lebron during their joint announcement on Wednesday, the pair clammed up for the first time in two weeks.

It seems so obvious now, and the entire charade briefly had me upset. I thought about all the time I wasted chasing my tail, reading every tweet as if it were headline news. I wondered if the new big three might possibly become the biggest villains in sport?

But then I remembered all three genuinely seem like nice guys, and they all smile so much, and they're all so damn good that it would be nearly impossible to hate them. Hell, they might play 50 games on national television next year (every Thursday night on TNT and Sunday afternoon on ABC right?), and it will be absolutely fascinating to watch.

And if you don't think Pat Riley's Blackberry absolutely blew up Thursday night from the stampede of calls and texts sent his direction from veteran unrestricted free agents offering their services for the league minimum in salary, well, ahhh, you're wrong. Dead wrong.

The pressure on this team to win, after they fill out the rest of the roster (do you think Shaq is already in Miami or still en route?), will be like nothing we've ever seen. They're going to have to be like Tiger Woods in 2000 for 100 nights a year. I can't wait to see what happens.

NHL Free Agency: Winners and Losers

The Losers:

New York Rangers
Glen Sather has been the Rangers GM since 2000 and during his nine seasons in charge the Blueshirts have made four playoff appearances and never advanced past the second round. Slats has signed three of the worst contracts currently in hockey (Drury, Gomez, Redden) and just massively overpaid for Derek Boogard (4 years, $6.6 million), who hasn't scored a goal in his last 190 games. There is no question that Boogard is one bad hombre who will protect his teammates and strike fear in opposing players, but he plays about five minutes a game. Crazy.

Vancouver Canucks
Too long for Dan Hamhuis (six years), too much for Manny Malholtra ($2.5 a year), and it may end up costing them Mason Raymond. I can totally understand adding either Hamhuis or Ballard, but grabbing both of them seems redundant. It looks like Mike Gillis, who now has six defenceman earning at least $3.25 million, has gone to the Brian Burke school of building a blue line. Obviously, that is not a good thing.

Ottawa Senators
If I were a Sens fan and was looking at paying a total of $15.3 million (or roughly 26% of my cap space) next year to Alex Kovalev, Sergei Gonchar and Pascal Leclaire...well, let's just say Bryan Murray would not be on my Christmas card list. Gonchar has been one of if not the elite point producing defenceman in the league over the last ten years, but at 36, and after playing only 87 of a possible 164 games the last two years, it just doesn't make a lot of sense to give him three years AND a raise.

Buffalo Sabres
Over-paid for a washed up Jordan Leopold (three years, $9 million) instead of spending an extra $375k a year to keep Henrik Tallinder even though they have more than $10 million in available cap space. This was dumb on two levels: 1) Tallinder is 1000 times the player that Leopold is, and 2) he paired with and mentored Tyler Myers all of last year and allowed him to blossom into a bonafide force. Buffalo will need the pre-Olympic version of Ryan Miller just to squeak into the playoffs next year.

The Winners:

Tampa Bay Lightning
Stevie Y knows what he's doing. The rookie GM somehow convinced the Flyers to take Andrej Mezaros off his hands (Paul Holmgren and his scouting staff didn't watch Tampa play the last two years?) and then more than replaced him with a superior and cost-effective Pavel Kubina (two years, $7.7 million), rewarded a deserving Martin St.Louis with an extension and topped it off by signing a quality goalie (Dan Ellis) to a short-term deal (two years, $3 million). If Yzerman manages to send Vinny Lecavalier to LA, he may have won the 2010-11 GM of the Year Award before the season even starts.

New Jersey Devils
Anton Volchenkov was made to play in the Devils system and while the length of his new contract might be a little longer than I would like (six years), the price was more than fair ($4.25 million per). Sweet Lou also added Henrik Tallinder to give them their best defensive unit since the Scott Stevens/Scott Niedermayer days. If the Kovalchuk deal goes through and they don't have to give up Zajac to make room for him, I very much like Jersey's chances next year.

San Jose Sharks
After nine years with Evgeni Nabokov as their starter that resulted in limited post-season success, it was absolutely the right time to let him walk. The fact that Doug Wilson then jumped onboard the cheap goaltending train makes it even better. Antero Nittimaki (two years, $4 million) is definitely good enough to win with, and for all we know, Thomas Greiss might be too.

Calgary Flames
Darryl Sutter has been getting absolutely crushed by the Canadian media, particularly for his moves on July 1st, but I actually like both of the signings. Olli Jokinen is coming off of two disappointing seasons and never quite found his groove in Calgary during his first go-around, but at that price ($3 million per for only two years) I think the risk is worth the potential reward. Same thing goes for Alex Tanguay, who will earn $1.7 million on a one year deal and can also play in the Flames top-6.

CB More?

Ever since Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade all eschewed longer contracts and signed shorter three year extensions back in 2007, the basketball world has been anticipating the summer of 2010.

On July 1st that trio will hit free agency with numerous possible destinations thanks to the salary cap scrambling of several teams as they prepared for the big bonanza.

Chris Bosh tweeted his own wish-list last week, revealing that he was open to playing in any of Chicago, Miami, New York, Los Angeles and Toronto next year, so let's examine the scenarios that could play out and the effect they would have on the Toronto Raptors.

Scenario A: Sign & Trade with Marcus Banks or Reggie Evans for Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and Taj Gibson
In order to get back the one guy they actually want (Gibson), the Raptors would also have to take the Bulls two worst contracts, but they do get to relieve themselves of a bad contract of their own. Two major problems with this: 1) neither Deng nor Hinrich fit very well with the rest of the current roster; and 2) it's never a smart move to get rid of a one year $5 million contract for two, multiple year $10 million contracts.
Chances of it actually happening: 1%

Scenario B: Sign & Trade for Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem, Free Agent X and two first round draft-picks
If this were to happen it might kill the NBA in Toronto. Unless someone hires Isiah Thomas to run their team we're stuck with Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu for the next four years. Adding Michael Beasley to the mix, even if it were for only one year, would be too much. The number of lifeless jumpers and the amount of indifference on the defensive end would cause Jay Triano's replacement to resign. No, not re-sign. Resign as in quit.
Chances of it actually happening: 0.5%

Scenario C: Sign & Trade for David Lee
In this situation the Raptors would sign Bosh to a massive extension that may or may not be the maximum but would certainly be in the neighborhood of $17 million a year. The Knicks would sign Lee to a Hedo Turkoglu type of deal (say 5 years and $55 million) and include Sergio Rodriguez and Wilson Chandler to make the salaries work. With a starting five that included Bargnani, Lee, Turkoglu and Calderon, the Raps would have the potential to be the worst defensive team in the history of basketball.
Chances of it actually happening: 18%

Scenario D: Sign & Trade for Andrew Bynum (with the Lakers including Jordan Farmar)
Most people look at the Lakers and see a team that doesn't need to do anything...that wouldn't dream of doing anything. They're about to go to their third straight NBA finals and are on the verge of back-to-back championships. Why mess with a good thing, right? Well, first remember that they switched in Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza last year, and second, how many stories have you heard about Kobe mercilessly harping on Bynum for his injuries, immaturity, inconsistent play, bowling too much, being too big, whatever. The point is, Kobe has never been a big Bynum fan. In Toronto Bynum, who was never better than the third option in LA, would instantly become 1 or 1A on offence. The Raptors would get a 22 year-old seven foot center who has the talent and proven ability to replace the 20 and 10 that Bosh takes with him. Even with Bynum's significant injury history this deal makes the most sense.
Chances of it actually happening: 40%

Scenario E: Bosh leaves as a Free Agent
For the Raptors, this could be the most beneficial outcome to the entire Bosh saga. Seriously. Take another look at those options. I could live with Bynum, and everyone else listed certainly has his merits, but every one of them would be hard-pressed to live up to their contract. And Bosh wouldn't live up to his if he chose to re-sign and stay here either. He's not good enough to be the best player on a championship team and carrying his contract would have been a burden moving forward...just as carrying any of the contracts listed above would be a burden. The better option would be to let him walk and then sign a few lower tier free agents after the market settles. None of the above options are going to take this team to the next level, so why bother forcing something?
Chances of it actually happening: 41%

Scenario F: Bosh re-signs and stays
Not. Going. To. Happen.
Chances of it actually happening: 0%

The Greatest Canadian MLB Free Agent Class...Ever

This winter's MLB free agent class has been labeled as 'weak', 'ordinary', 'lacking in star power' and 'more boring than an episode of Ugly Betty'. Okay, I made that last one up but for the most part, the labels are deserved. After all, it's hard to get fired up when Chone Figgins, Johnny Damon and Miguel Tejada are amongst the biggest names available.

However, when you observe with a Canadian perspective, this is without doubt our country's greatest collection of un-signed baseball talent ever available in the same off-season. It isn't a long list, with only three names on it (sorry Eric Gagne), but what it lacks in length it certainly makes up for with pure talent.

The class is headed by Trail, B.C. native Jason Bay. The right-handed, power hitting right fielder burst onto the scene by winning the NL rookie of the year in 2004 with Pittsburgh, but really made a name for himself when he was traded to Boston in the Manny Ramirez deal in 2008. It was in Boston where Bay, fueled by the constant national and local media attention as well as his first taste of a pennant race, finally had his considerable talent noticed.

In 200 games with the Red Sox, Bay hit 45 homers, drove in 157 runs, had a .380 OBP and carried Boston to within one game of the 2008 World Series. Bay reportedly turned down a four year $60 million offer from the Sox and will likely end up signing for somewhere in the neighborhood of $85 million. Unfortunately for Blue Jay fans, that neighborhood will not be in Toronto.

Bay has consistently been mentioned as one of, if not the premier free agent of the 2009 class (along with Matt Holliday and John Lackey), but seemingly forgotten are two other highly talented Canadian pitchers who have been marred by injury.

The first is Erik Bedard, who reportedly spent the last two seasons fighting with teammates and the coaching staff in Seattle. Bedard has a career record of 51-41 with a 3.71 ERA but has only managed to make 15 starts in each of the last two years. The lefty from Ottawa was so highly sought after two years ago that Seattle traded Adam Jones and George Sherill for him prior to the 2008 season (both became All-Stars in Baltimore). Not surprisingly, Bill Bavasi, the Seattle GM who made that trade, is no longer the Seattle GM.

The second is Victoria's Rich Harden, who followed up an impressive 2008 (25 starts, 10-2, 2.07 ERA, 181 K's) with a mediocre 2009 (26 starts, 9-9, 4.09 ERA, 171 K's) but has a 50-29 career record and averages better than a strikeout an inning. Harden broke into the big leagues as a 21 year-old with the Oakland Athletics and appeared to be destined for stardom but injuries have been a constant issue. He has topped 150 innings only once in his seven seasons but continues to tantalize scouts with his repertoire.

Harden turned 28 on Monday of this week and Bedard is only 30, so perhaps both will follow in the footsteps of former Blue Jay Chris Carpenter, who stuggled with injuries in his mid-twenties before blossoming into a Cy Young winner and World Series champion with the St.Louis Cardinals.

Both players, because of their injury histories, will be forced into accepting short-term deals at what will likely be deep paycuts (Bedard made $7.75M and Harden $7M in 2009). However, if both can stay healthy they certainly have the ability and talent to provide excellent value to whichever clubs end up signing them.

The Best and Worst of NHL Free Agency

The Worst

1. Bob Gainey & The Montreal Canadiens - If Gainey's plan was to make his team smaller and easier for his fans to hate while completely ignoring chemistry...well then, mission accomplished. The trade for Scott Gomez and his horrific contract (anytime you can get a 15 goal scorer for $7 million a year you have to do it) kicked things off and it only got worse from there. Brian Gionta got $25 million for a great season that happened to come four years ago. If you throw out that one big year (48G, 41A in '05-06), Gionta has averaged 22 goals and 25 assists since he became a full-time NHLer. Decent numbers, but certainly not worthy of $5 million a year. Mike Cammalleri is three years younger than Gionta and definitely a more legitimate sniper, but he has yet to post back-to-back solid seasons and should be forced to give a third of his $30 million to Jarome Iginla. To top it all off, Gainey signed Jaroslav Spacek, a 35 year-old defenceman who normally misses 15-20 games a year due to injury, to a three year contract for only slighlty less than it would have cost the team to keep Mike Komisarek. I have December 10th 2009 circled as the day Gainey is fired but wouldn't be surprised if it happend before then. Like...say, tomorrow.

2. Mattias Ohlund - This contract (7 years, $26 million) is Chapter 25 in my new book titled "How Oren Koules and Len Barrie destroyed the Tampa Bay Lightning". I understand and applaud the fact that you want to invest in the development of a young stud defenceman (Victor Hedman) you just drafted #2 overall, but do you really need to commit seven years to it? Wouldn't three or four have been enough? Ohlund's goal scoring totals have decreased five straight years as has his overall effectiveness.

3. Jay Bouwmeester - At his introductory press conference yesterday, when asked what made Calgary his choice destination, Bouwmeester answered "Ahhh, well, ahhh, ya, I just talked to a lot of the guys that play here, and ahhhh, ya, just ya, seems like a good place to be". He's a great skater and extremely good defensively in one-on-one situations, but seems to be about as intense as Vernon Wells. And he looks like he should be on 'The Hills'. And he's never played a single minute of playoff hockey, ever. Not in four years of junior and not during his six year NHL career. Not exactly the credentials you look for when it comes to winning.

4. Marian Gaborik - Absolutely one of the most talented players in the league but also one of the most injury-prone. His games played stats over the last five years read like this: 65, 65, 48, 77 and 17. In case you're wondering, it's an 82 game schedule. Handing Gaborik a five-year deal would be like a movie studio inking Lindsay Lohan to a multiple-film contract - totally inexplicable and potentially disastrous. Are we sure Glen Sather was the mastermind of those great Oiler teams in the 80's?

5. Nik Antropov - He didn't quite get the five year $25 million salary he reportedly asked the Rangers for, but the Thrashers came close (four years/$16 million). Another player who routinely spends time on the sidelines nursing injuries and often hurts his team with careless stick penalties. At his best, Antropov is an average second-line center. At his worst, he is Nick the Not-so-Quick who generally floats through games and is certainly not a difference-maker. Fortunately for Antropov, there is no need for a difference-maker in Atlanta, where the team is hopeless.

6. Vernon Wells - True, he doesn't play hockey but his numbers are so terrible (.301 OBP this year, .330 for his career) that I just couldn't resist pointing out how absurd his contract is. Following the 2006 season in which he slugged 32 homers, J.P. Riccardi signed Wells to a seven year extension that kicked in before the 2008 season. It earns him $10 million this year, $21 million next year, $23 million in 2011 and then back to $21 million for each of the final three seasons (thru 2014). In the 337 games Wells has played since signing the extension, he has 43 homers. That's one good month for Albert Pujols.

The Best

1. The Sedins - How Mike Gillis got the Sedin twins to sign for less than half of what they originally wanted (5 years/$30.5 million a piece rather than 12 years/$63 million each) is borderline incredible and he deserves considerable praise. The passing Sedin and the scoring Sedin are two of the most consistent point-producers in the NHL and Vancouver has them locked up at an un-outrageous price. They aren't the guys that will lead them to a Cup because they lack the grit and intangibles to do so, but what they do provide isn't easily replaceable either.

2. Scott Niedermayer - Nothing shocking about Niedermayer returning to Anaheim on a one-year $6 million contract, but it is an excellent signing for the Ducks. The best or second-best (to Nick Lidstrom) defenceman in the game will be only the 11th highest paid player at his position and leaves ample room to re-sign Francois Beauchemin and work out an extension for Bobby Ryan.

3. Craig Anderson - Slowly managers are catching on to the fact that it is idiotic (outside of Brodeur and Luongo) to pay a goalie big-time money. Anderson posted the third best GAA in the league last year when he (at times) wrestled the #1 job away from Tomas Vokoun. His two year $3.6 million contract will prove to be very rewarding for the Avalanche.

4. Mike Knuble - A consistent 25 goal scorer to play on the opposite wing with either Ovechkin or Semin for only $2.8 million a year? Yes, he's 37 years old but the contract is only two years long and Knuble has always been a 'stand-in front of the net and bang home rebounds' type of player, it's not like his game relies on speed. Well done Mr.McPhee.

5. Nobody - Honestly, I tried to talk myself into putting the Marian Hossa contract here, reasoning that the final four years of the twelve year contract he signed with Chicago only pay him a total of $3.4 million. So it's really only an eight year deal with an excellent cap-hit of just $5.2 million a year. But then again, IT'S STILL AN EIGHT YEAR DEAL! I also considered the contracts given to Havlat (too much injury history), Khabibulin (disappearing act), and Komisarek (over-hyped by the Montreal media) but quickly poked holes in each. In my opinion, the majority of free agent contracts handed out yesterday (and last year, and the year before, etc.) are somewhere between stupid and ridiculous and will cause the teams that awarded them more pain than gain.