Did the Jets overpay for Pavelec?

Reason #947 why you don't need to pay a goalie: any team in hockey could have signed Mike Smith last summer for a measly $2 million a year.

Yes, the same Mike Smith that went 38-18-10 with a .930 SV% and 8 shutouts in the regular season before going Superman on us in the playoffs and nearly carrying the Coyotes all the way to Stanley Cup Finals, was the 28th highest paid goalie in hockey last year.

Which brings us to the 5 year/$19.5M contract the Winnipeg Jets and Ondrej Pavelec agreed to. There is no doubt Pavelec, despite posting the 34th best SV% in the NHL last year, is a decent goalie with the potential to improve. What there is doubt about is whether spending almost $4M a year on only half of your goalie position is a prudent use of cap space.

Below is the starting goalie salary for each of the last 10 Stanley Cup Finalists:

2012: Kings, Quick - $1.9M and Devils, Brodeur - $5.2M

2011: Bruins, Thomas - $6M and Canucks, Luongo - $10M

2010: Hawks, Niemi - $827K and Flyers, Leighton/Boucher - $750K (avg.)

2009: Penguins, Fleury - $3.5M and Red Wings, Osgood - $1.7M

2008: Red Wings, Osgood - $800K - and Penguins, Fleury - $1.6M

By my math that is 6 of the 10 playoff starters that were paid less than $2M a year, and going even further, 5 of the 10 teams (Detroit twice, Pens in '08, Hawks, Flyers and Kings) spent less than $3M total on the goaltending position. 

Recent history suggests a team that pinches pennies on the goalie position is actually more likely to reach the Finals than one that doesn't.

What Are They Worth?

Winnipeg has decisions to make on 12 free agent players

As the Jets struggle to remain a part of the Eastern conference playoff race and the end of their magical first year back in the NHL begins to appear on the horizon, management will soon be faced with deciding who among their group of nine unrestricted free agents will move forward with the team, as well as how their three restricted free agents might fit into the picture.

The biggest offseason contract decision at any position for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will be that of what to do with winger Evander Kane. Coming off his entry level contract, which paid him an annual salary of $900k with bonuses that can take him all the way up to $3.1 million (depending on all sorts of things we won't get in to here), the 20 year-old has quickly become Winnipeg's most dangerous player and the one with the most upside. With 18 goals on the season, Kane's next score will tie his career high and a 30 goal campaign is within reach, which would represent continued progression for a player who will have increased his goal and point totals in each of his first three seasons. He's big and strong and his skill set includes elite level speed and a heavy, accurate shot with a quick release. Kane looks an awful lot like he's a dominant power forward waiting to happen.

However, he also lacks consistency and from the sounds of it, maturity. From trying to sell tweets to local businesses, to alienating teammates, to ignoring autograph seeking fans, Kane still has a lot of growing up to do and pegging his value at this stage of his evolution will be tricky. The average annual salary on a new contract will ultimately depend on the length, meaning a shorter deal of 2-3 years could be at about $3 million annually while anything longer than four years will cost considerably more per year. This negotiation could turn ugly and potentially even extend into training camp.

The other restricted free agent up front is Eric Fehr, who is earning $2.2 million this year to play an average on nine inconsequential minutes a night. The Jets took a chance on Fehr, acquiring him for a 2012 4th rounder in what was essentially a salary dump by the Capitals, but with just one lonely goal on the season another one-way NHL contract in Winnipeg is unlikely.

Among the UFA's at forward, Jim Slater ($1.1 million) and Tanner Glass ($750k) have become 2/3rds of what would be an excellent fourth line (if they weren't miscast as a third line), and both should expect new multi-year offers. Slater is the team's face-off specialist and a consistent 10 goal scorer so a similar salary on a two year deal would be appropriate. Glass has proven he can play the energy role and chip in offensively, which could force the Jets to go to at least three years in the $1 million per year range or risk losing him to another team.

Also unrestricted are Tim Stapleton ($525k), who has one huge fan in Claude Noel (I've given up trying to understand Stapleton on the point during the PP) and not many others, and Kyle Wellwood ($700k), who has two fans in his parents. The only way Wellwood should be on an NHL team is if he's playing in the top six, because as Jets fans (and Shark, Canuck and Leafs fans before them) have witnessed, in a third or fourth line role he is entirely ineffective. With that said, if Wellwood is in your top six permanently, as in not just an injury forced fill-in, well, say hello to the draft lottery. Bon voyage to them both.

On the back end Winnipeg has four UFA's, most notably Johnny Oduya, who is in the last year of a contract that pays him $4 million this season. After a very difficult first 10 games, which included a trip to the press box as a healthy scratch, Oduya has settled in nicely but will probably need to take a bit of a haircut on his current salary if he wants to stick around next year and beyond. I expect Cheveldayoff is already negotiating with Oduya's agent, and if no extension can be reached before the deadline, he could be dealt for a prospect or a pick.

The rest of the free agent defencemen, all of whom are unrestricted, include the oft-injured Randy Jones ($1.15M), the rehabbing Derek Meech ($700k), and the surprisingly dependable Mark Flood ($525k). Of the three Flood is the most obvious choice to continue with the team beyond this year, but each could easily be replaced if contract negotiations prove to be at all difficult. Jones, if he can stay healthy, could also be moved at the deadline.

In goal, both Ondrej Pavelec and Chris Mason are set to become free agents but a case can easily be made to stay the course, assuming Mason is willing to take a one year deal at slightly below his current $2.1 million salary. The offseason goalie market, particularly for aging veterans (Mason will turn 36 in April), has dried up considerably in recent years as teams recognize there are more quality goalies than jobs available, making bargain bin deals an option for any team willing to be patient (Vokoun, Elliott, Smith, to name just a few from last summer alone). All accounts suggest Mason is a positive presence in the dressing room and his performance, albeit in limited action, indicates he still has enough game to stop pucks when called upon. As long as he doesn't get greedy, it's a good bet he'll return.

Pavelec, despite his mediocre numbers (2.89 GAA and .910 SV%), has played very well overall and has established himself as a core piece of this team moving forward. He's coming off a deal that paid him only $1.3 million, and can expect a significant raise. Pavelec and his agent will likely point to his countryman Jaroslav Halak as a reasonable comparable and look for something in the neighbourhood of $4 million annually for at least four years. But as a restricted free agent, and with his misleading numbers, Cheveldayoff has an opportunity to lock Pavelec up with a team friendly contract, something closer to $3 million per year.

NHL Signing Day

With a $64 million cap and a 23 man roster, the average annual salary for a NHL player in 2011-12 will be just shy of $3 million

When the NHL salary cap came into effect after the lock-out, I began to ruthlessly decry every long-term (6 or more years) and/or big dollar ($6 million plus annually) contract that was signed.

I ridiculed the Rangers for signing Chris Drury, the Flyers for Daniel Briere, the Red Wings for Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen, the Canucks for Roberto Luongo...the list went on and on (just like the actual contracts).

I always believed it was in a team's best interest to avoid those types of contracts at all costs. I understood the thinking behind tacking on years and paying the majority of the total contract at the front of the deal to reduce the cap hit, but I couldn't see the logic in committing more than five years to any player not named Crosby or Ovechkin. Injury, consistency, and complacency were all too much of a concern in my mind. Plus, I am apparently the only person who remembers the mess that was the NBA from 1996 - 2000. (So yes, my credibility took a hit with the 'It Won't Be Jets' and 'Manitoba Time' columns, but I did forsee the current NHL salary crisis a full three years ago.)

I also thought that tieing up as much as 20-25% of your cap space on 2-3 players would not allow a team to surround those top players with the quality depth needed to compete for a Stanley Cup.

I was adamant that teams who offered these types of contracts would regret them in the long run. I was positive that having more than a couple of players with annual salaries north of $5 million would cripple a team. I firmly believed you had to be very careful not to overpay anyone on your roster, and laughed at many contracts for borderline or slightly above average players who were signed to 3, 4 and $5 million contracts (Jeff Finger, Mike Commodore, Tuomo Ruutu, to name but a few).

I was deeply invested in the stockpiling draft picks/developing players/avoid over-paying for free agents philosophy. I believed you needed the roster flexibility that comes with putting together a team in this fashion, and if you didn't, well, at some point it would come back and bite you.

What I didn't see coming was a salary cap that would increase at a pace of almost 10% a year, from $39 million in 2006, all the way to $64 million in 2011. I didn't see the average, yes AVERAGE salary becoming almost $3 million in 2011.

Now when a player like Brooks Laich signs for $4.5 million a year, the sticker shock isn't nearly what it used to be. If the average salary is almost $3 million a year, then a slightly above average player is going to command at least slightly above $3 million a year. Simple logic.

The point is, worrying about fitting large salaries into your cap or slightly over-paying for an average player is suddenly a waste of time for fans and teams alike. Not only does a cap that keeps going up entice rich teams to be stupid, it also means those same teams have unlimited get-out-of-jail-free cards that can be used to give away bad contracts to teams needing to somehow get to the salary cap floor (which is a staggering $48 million for 2011-12).

All of which adds up to a humongous payday for Brad Richards.

I hope he signs with the Leafs.

Fixing Major League Baseball

After hearing about the Red Sox swooping in to sign Carl Crawford to a $142 million deal only days after trading for Adrian Gonzalez, I quickly went into yet another doomsday level of panic on behalf of Toronto Blue Jay fans everywhere.

Totally unfair. Ridiculous. What's the point?

It was the same old storyline: How can the Blue Jays ever realistically expect to compete when a maximum of two teams from one division make the playoffs, and the Jays reside in a division with the two biggest spenders in the sport?

Of the last 27 AL East teams to qualify for the playoffs, 24 of those births have gone to either the Red Sox or Yankees.

When the inevitable finally occurs and Cliff Lee accepts somewhere around $160 million from the Yankees in the next few days, the two Evil Empires will have spent around $530 million on five players (Crawford, Gonzalez, Jeter, Rivera, Lee) over the last two weeks. (The Red Sox have agreed to an extension with Gonzalez for about $154 million but won't announce it until opening day in order to save money on the luxury tax.)

In an attempt to have another baseball geek console me and remind me that the Rays have managed to sneak past both Boston and New York and into the playoffs twice in the last three years, I turned to my friend Marshall and quickly began texting up a storm. After several exchanges, neither of us were particularly hopeful that things would get better.

And that's when Marshall came up with gold.

Rather than luxury tax payments going into a pool that is then evenly divided between all the non-luxury taxed teams, why not have all (or at least the bulk) of luxury tax payments stay within the division? Why should the Pirates or Padres or Marlins get an equal amount of Boston and New York's luxury tax dollars when it's the Jays, Rays and Orioles who have to compete with them?

And wouldn't this model actually potentially curb the spending of these teams? If the Sox and Yanks knew that going into luxury tax territory would mean directly financing their AL East counterparts, wouldn't they think twice about their next big acquisition?

It's All Down Hill From Here

I began forecasting the slippery slope that the NHL is now fully sliding down back in 2008, long before the New Jersey Devils handed Ilya Kovalchuk the most alarming (and according to the powers that be, unethical) contract in the history of North American professional sport.

Back then, shortly after Vinny Lecavalier signed an 11 year $85 million contract, I wrote:

Are teams simply hoping the salary cap will continue to increase, year-after-year, without any recourse? Do they think by the time the last few remaining years of those deals come around, the cap will be $75M or $100M and the contract will actually look cheap? Can they automatically assume that one or two good seasons is enough to project a player's production 5 or 10 years down the line?

It's a nice thought, but...what if that doesn't happen? What if the annual salary cap, after rising a whopping 35% in 4 years, levels off and then a guy you've committed 7 or 8 years and $40-50M to doesn't fulfill expectations? Even worse, what if you have two guys like that? Or three?

It's a dark road the NHL is traveling down, and it's the same trail the NBA burned in the late 90's that lead to people like Jim McIlvane, Tariq Abdul-Wahad, and Austin Croshere earning some $127 million (combined) in salary. This is great news if you're Jeff Finger or Ron Hainsey or any other marginal player who may (or may not) have upside, but for everyone else it means bad times. Unless you cheer for Detroit, each contract from here on out has the potential to bury your franchise for the foreseeable future.

The NBA owners forced a lockout in 1999 not only to put a cap on player salaries, but also to implement the maximum length a contract could run. Teams were doling out 8, 10, even 12 year deals to stars and that in turn increased contract duration expectations around the league. Eager to keep young players away from free agency, GM's began paying on potential instead of production, and tacked on extra years without hesitation.

Remember the deals handed to Larry Johnson, Juwan Howard, Glenn Robinson and numerous other players who were either too young or still unproven? Remember the kind of damage they did to their respective teams?

Larry Johnson 12 years/$84M - 1994
Glenn Robinson 10 years/$68M - 1995
Donyell Marshall 9 years/$42M - 1994
Juwan Howard 7 years/$105M - 1996
Jayson Williams 7 years/$100M - 1999
Brian Grant 7 years/$84M - 2000
Vin Baker 6 years/$86.7M - 1997
Tim Thomas 6 years/$67M - 1999
Bryant Reeves 6 years/$65M - 1997
Antonio McDyess 6 years/$67M - 1998
Tom Gugliotta 6 years/$58.5M - 1998

In a few short years the entire landscape of the NBA changed. Instead of trading players you traded contracts. Where once you had almost every team competing, legitimately trying to win night in and night out, with most having a realistic shot of at least qualifying for the playoffs when training camp opened...all of a sudden you had a clear set of contenders and an equally clear set of pretenders who were fed to the lions and playing for the lottery from day one.

The NBA finally realized guaranteeing several tens of millions of dollars to athletes for a decade or more at a time, regardless of their performance, wasn't working out that well. Didn't exactly lead to motivation. Another factor was injuries. So they capped the length a contract could run for, and proceeded to shorten it again in the next round of CBA negotiating.

It was noted hockey genius Charles Wang who started this particular movement in the NHL, but it wasn't when he gave Rick Dipietro a 15 year contract in 2003. It actually began two years earlier when Wang signed (ahem) Alexei Yashin (10 years/$87.5M) and the Capitals inked Jaromir Jagr (7 years/$77M) to enormous contracts that neither player came close to playing out. In fact, both were paid to leave. Washington ate nearly half of Jagr's contract while he was wearing a Rangers jersey ($3.4M/year), and seven long years from now the Islanders will have squandered $17M in cap space for Yashin to stay home and continue not caring about hockey. Good investments?

In the years since we've seen several hockey players sign ridiculously long contracts and the situation is now unfolding just as it did in basketball. At first it's the stars: the hottest free agents and the best young players score huge extended deals. The rationale is obviously a move to circumvent the cap (more years at less dollars), and also, in the case of restricted free agents, to keep them away from other teams.

The problem isn't with the superstars getting big paydays, it's the length it comes with, and the effect that has on what everyone else can then demand.

As we look back on the recent history of the NBA, we can see the immediate future for the NHL. And it's not a pretty sight.

Now, two years later, the problem is coming to a head. The Kovalchuk deal, along with the contracts given to Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa, while within the rules of the salary cap, are clearly designed to circumvent it. The tail-end of each contract, when each player will be well into his 40's, will pay those players minimal salaries. Because the contracts were signed prior to the player turning 35 years-old, if the player retires before the contract is fulfilled it doesn't count against the individual teams salary cap. Basically it allows a guy like Kovalchuk to be paid $95 million over the first 11 years of his deal while the Devils somehow only take a $6 million cap hit each year.

It's a loop-hole that will certainly be dealt with during the next round of CBA negotiations when a maximum contract length rule will be implemented. But unfortunately by then it might be too late. More than one quarter of NHL teams already have (at least) one contract on their books that will run more than a decade (Chicago, Detroit, New Jersey, NY Islanders, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Washington), and who knows how many more will follow suit before the system can be corrected?

Bullpen's Are the New Goalie

A major league bullpen is like an NHL goalie: they can be found anywhere and for the most part, neither should ever be paid.

Sure if you're the Yankees or Red Sox or Angels working with an unlimited budget, you can spend on your relief corps. But if you're a smaller-market baseball team trying to win with limited resources, or if you are any team in the NHL working in a salary-cap system, the bullpen and the goal crease are two areas that can easily and effectively be skimped on when it comes to player contracts. I apologize that sounded an awful-lot like an essay, but this is serious stuff for a guy who thinks about sports 18 hours a day.

Over the last few years I've repeatedly written about goalies being under-valued in the NHL (here, here and here) and now that the Philadelphia Flyers have used two ultimate-journeymen between the pipes and still find themselves in the Stanley Cup final, this fact may actually be known. Although with Brian Burke trading for J.S. Giguere and his $7.5 million contract, Leaf fans might disagree.

In professional hockey, there is no point to spending money on that position. My apologies to everyone in Vancouver who are wiping away tears at the thought of Roberto Luongo's 12-year extension that kicks in next year. Frankly, I'm shocked to be living in a world where Rick DiPietro's 15 year contract is the second worst goaltending deal around. Never though it'd happen.

After watching both nobodies and somebodies win and lose ballgames in late innings the last few years, I am convinced the same philosophy can be applied to Major League bullpens. The number of MLB relievers who have come out of nowhere to have recent success is huge, way too high to count or list in this space, but one needs to look no further than our own Toronto Blue Jays for proof.

Scott Downs was a failed starter when he arrived in Toronto in 2005 but has been one of the most effective (and underpaid) lefty relievers in baseball since 2007. Sean Camp was the 500th overall pick in 1997 and blew chances to stick in both Kansas City and Tampa but has been stunningly effective in a Jays uniform. Jesse Carlson was lights-out a few years ago. Jeremy Accardo saved 30 games while earning less than $400k in 2007. And Kevin Gregg...well, Kevin Gregg sucks but at least he too is cheap. You can't win them all.

But you can patch together a bullpen out of castoffs, reclamation projects, and cheap older veterans looking to reprove themselves on one year contracts.

The Best NHL Team Money Can Buy

The only rule I am enforcing in assembling "The Best NHL Team Money Can Buy" is the ineligibility of players who are still on their entry-level deal, because their salaries are fairly standard depending on their draft position, meaning I couldn't select guys who have never been through a real negotiation. And of course, in a salary-capped world, this team must fit in under the current salary cap of $57 million.

I also tried to construct a team as if I were a real NHL GM, not focusing solely on offensive production but rather trying to build a well-rounded roster with defined roles. I'm not ready to say this squad would be the definite Stanley Cup champions, but I'd take my chances. (To any NHL owners reading this: my resume can be e-mailed in seconds!)

(All salaries are for the 2009-10 season.)

Centers
Ryan Getzlaf: $5,125,000 - A big, strong well-rounded player with soft hands, good speed, and incredible awareness. He's like Joe Thornton, only younger and with a Stanley Cup ring.
Marc Savard: $5,000,000 - Claude Julien has the formerly one-dimensional Savard playing hard at both ends of the ice. His play-making ability, especially on the PP, is among the best in hockey.
Derrick Roy: $3,500,000 - His salary goes up each of the next three seasons, but in 2009-10 he provides excellent value and production on my third line.
Dominic Moore: $1,100,000 - Good faceoff man, excellent on the PK and can chip in on scoring. The perfect 4th line center.

Left Wings
Ilya Kovalchuk: $7,500,000 - Granted, my man-love for the supremely-talented Russian is well documented (for the 1000th time, please come to Toronto next year Ilya!), but his scoring and play-making ability is under-appreciated. He is a guaranteed 45 goals and 90 points no matter who he's playing with.
Rene Bourque: $1,400,000 - Spark plug who can score (31 points in 32 games) and seems to be getting better and better every game.
Andrew Brunette: $2,500,000 - I've never understood how this guy continues to get passed around the league without ever finding a home. He's put up consistent points in every stop.

Nigel Dawes: $850,000 - How could Phoenix let Dawes go over a few hundred thousand dollars?

Right Wings
Ales Hemsky: $3,600,000 - I know he's hurt right now, and has never really fully delivered on his talent, but he's not overpaid and I still see a lot of upside.
Dustin Brown: $2,600,000 - Should surpass 30 goals for the second straight year and could really break out offensively at any time. Also not afraid to mix it up.
Jason Pominville: $1,350,000 - Has already signed a contract extension that will give him a hefty raise to $5.3M a year beginning next season. Suffice to say, Pominville isn't likely to be a repeat member of this squad.
Mikael Samuelsson: $1,200,000 - A smart player and a veteran presence to fill out the 4th line. Slightly more expensive than what you'd ideally want to pay a checker, but his ability to score combined with his winning experience make him a valuable addition.

Defence
Tomas Kaberle: $4,250,000 - One of the best powerplay quarterbacks in hockey and certainly the most affordable.

Shea Weber: $4,500,000 - My number one shutdown 'D' continues to live in relative obscurity in Nashville, but won't on this team.

Dennis Wideman: $3,750,000 - Has grown into a superb two-way defenceman. Another former London Knight, who learned from the Hunter brothers and is now excelling in the NHL.
Duncan Keith: $1,900,000 - With his recent long-term contract extension and likely inclusion on Team Canada's Olympic defence, Keith's unknown days are over. Could be the best value in the entire league for 2009-10.
Andreas Lilja: $1,250,000 - My top two defensive pairings will eat up close to 25 minutes a piece, leaving only 10 minutes or less for my numbers five and six. Lilja is a bit player who knows his role and excels in it.
Matt Carkner: $500,000 - Strictly a physical presence who will keep the opposition honest.

Goaltenders
Antti Niemi: $827,000

Jon Quick: $570,000

My goaltending philosophy is well known in this space, so I won't repeat myself. Let's just say I'd continually roll the dice and take chances on 25-29 year-old guys, never over-paying any of them.

Total Salary: $51,866,000

(Another note to NHL owners: That would leave a little more than $5 million on the table, leaving room to make a deadline deal or take on salary in case of injury.)

NHL Contracts: The Really Bad Ones

10. Tim Thomas - Four years $20 Million remaining
This was a classic mistake by Peter Chiarelli, paying for past performance. Or maybe he felt guilty for getting $6 million value out of Thomas the last few years while actually paying him less than a million a year. Either way, a four year deal for a 35 year-old semi-journeyman goalie is not smart. If he doesn't sign on your terms, you have to be prepared to walk away. Theo Epstein would never have made this move.

9. Brad Richards - Two years $15.6 remaining
He was tremendous in winning the Conn Smyth when Tampa won the Cup back in 2004 (when he was also a key part of Canada's World Cup team) and followed that up with a great season the first year after the lockout (91 points), but his play has regressed to the point that Dallas probably wishes they would've held on to Mike Smith, Jussi Jokinen and Jeff Halpern rather than trading for Richards. We know Tom Hicks and his (empty) wallet certainly do.

8. Tim Connolly - Two Years $9 Million remaining
This is like a MLB team giving Rich Harden a two year $20 million contract. The potential is there for it to be worth it, but the logic suggests you would be an idiot to offer. Connolly is a terrifically talented playmaker who cannot stay healthy. Can't. Will not.

7. Brian Rolston - Three years, $15 million
The 36 year old has watched as his goals, assists and points have each decreased over the last four years. He's gone from 79 points, to 64, to 59 and all the way down to 32 points last year. It's as if Lou Lamoriello botches a couple of contracts on purpose (Alex Mogilny, Vladimir Malakhov) just so he can challenge himself to get out from under them. If I'm Florida, Phoenix or any other sorry franchise, I'd be very careful when Lou is calling you. It might be best to let that one go to voicemail.

6. Ryan Malone - Six years $25.5 million remaining
His stats are eerily similar to Darcy Tucker and Tucker was bought out of his Toronto contract while making $3 million a year. With a cap hit of $4.25 million a year, Malone won't be overpaid this year or even next. But the last four years of that deal, when Malone is 32, 33, 34 and 35, well, they aren't going to be pretty for the Kansas City Lightning fans.

5. Rick Dipietro - 12 years $54 million remaining
The contract that put the NHL directly on route to the NBA circa 1999 has predictably set the precedent for a future CBA showdown. A maximum number of years in contract length will absolutely be a part of the next NHL/NHLPA agreement and for everyone not an NHL player or agent, this can't happen soon enough.

4. Chris Pronger - Seven years $35 million remaining
This refers to the extension Pronger signed upon being traded to Philadelphia (he still has one year left on his original deal) and how it will probably destroy the Flyers in five years. You know, unless the league decides to look the other way. As it currently stands, Pronger will have a cap hit of $5 million as a 41 and 42 year-old player even though his deal is heavily weighted to the front (he'll earn only half a million dollars in each of his final two years). The Flyers thought they had circumvented the cap like everyone else, but somehow forgot or misunderstood that any player who signs after age 35 cannot come off the cap even in retirement. In short: A horrible, horrible deal for the Flyers.

3. Wade Redden - Five years $31 million remaining
I know Glen Sather was the architect of five Stanley Cup teams with the Oiler in the 80's and that his drafting resume during that period was nothing short of amazing...but that was a long time ago. A long, long time ago. Every Senator fan in the world knew Redden was in decline as far back as three years ago. Now Ranger fans are finding out.

2. Scott Gomez - Five years, $33.5 million remaining
I would like to call this a 'roll of the dice' move by Bob Gainey, selling it (like the delusional Montreal media) as taking a chance on revitalizing a fallen star with a simple change of scenery. But that would be a lie because when you're rolling the dice there is always potential for a good outcome. Gomez has scored between 10 and 19 goals in eight of his nine NHL seasons. He isn't even a top 30 center in this league.

1. Brian Campbell - Seven years $50 million remaining
It was cringe worthy in 2008 when he signed, and the contract appears even worse now. It's not that Campbell is a terrible player by any means. He's a good powerplay presence on the point who happens to be mildly to exceedingly overpaid. He's not the only one. The real problem is that he eats up a minimum of 8% of the Chicago cap space going forward and is the fourth best rearguard on the team AND they have two of the best young forwards in the league approaching restricted free agency. Welcome to the job Stan Bowman.

Top 10 NHL Earners Since 1989

Ever wonder exactly how much some of your favorite NHL stars have earned over the course of their careers? Here's the list of the 10 highest paid hockey players of all time heading into the 2009-10 season:

10. Pavel Bure (VAN, FLA, NYR)
Entered League: 1991
Highest Annual Salary: $10,000,000 in 2002, 2003, 2004
Accumulated Salary: $66,369,794

9. Peter Forsberg (QUE/COL, PHI, NAS)
Entered League: 1994
Highest Annual Salary: $11,000,000 in 2004
Accumulated Salary: $66,528,213

8. Mike Modano (MIN/DAL)
Entered League: 1989
Highest Annual Salary: $9,000,000 in 2004
Accumulated Salary: $72,337,650

7. Chris Pronger (HAR, STL, EDM, ANA)
Entered League: 1993
Highest Annual Salary: $9,500,000 in 2002, 2003, 2004
Accumulated Salary: $72,450,500

6. Paul Kariya (ANA, COL, NAS, STL)
Entered League: 1994
Highest Annual Salary: $10,000,000 in 2001, 2002, 2003
Accumulated Salary: $76,686,100

5. Keith Tkachuk (WIN/PHX, STL, ATL)
Entered League: 1992
Highest Annual Salary: $11,000,000 in 2003
Accumulated Salary: $78,348,974

4. Mats Sundin (QUE, TOR, VAN)
Entered League: 1991
Highest Annual Salary: $9,000,000 in 2003, 2004
Accumulate Salary: $79,405,632

3. Nicklas Lidstrom (DET)
Entered League: 1991
Highest Annual Salary: $10,500,000 in 2003
Accumulated Salary: $80,515,000

2. Joe Sakic (QUE/COL)
Entered League: 1989
Highest Annual Salary: $17,000,000 in 1998
Accumulated Salary: $93,174,047

1. Jaromir Jagr (PIT, WAS, NYR)
Entered League: 1990
Highest Annual Salary: $11,483,333 in 2003
Accumalted Salary: $98,038,851

*Endorsement contracts not included.

**I know some of you might be saying, "What about Yashin, didn't that bum sign a $90 million contract with the Islanders back in 2001?" And the answer is yes, he did. But he was bought out of that contract in 2007 and to date has earned about $55 million from his NHL contracts, leaving him just outside the top 10.

Of course Yashin will continue to get paid ($3.2 million this year, a whopping $4.75 million next, and then $2.2 million for another four years after that!) by the Islanders, but that is a whole different story.

I'm thinking Pat Brisson, the agent for John Tavares, might do alright for the kid when he gets out of his rookie contract.

The Best and Worst of NHL Free Agency

The Worst

1. Bob Gainey & The Montreal Canadiens - If Gainey's plan was to make his team smaller and easier for his fans to hate while completely ignoring chemistry...well then, mission accomplished. The trade for Scott Gomez and his horrific contract (anytime you can get a 15 goal scorer for $7 million a year you have to do it) kicked things off and it only got worse from there. Brian Gionta got $25 million for a great season that happened to come four years ago. If you throw out that one big year (48G, 41A in '05-06), Gionta has averaged 22 goals and 25 assists since he became a full-time NHLer. Decent numbers, but certainly not worthy of $5 million a year. Mike Cammalleri is three years younger than Gionta and definitely a more legitimate sniper, but he has yet to post back-to-back solid seasons and should be forced to give a third of his $30 million to Jarome Iginla. To top it all off, Gainey signed Jaroslav Spacek, a 35 year-old defenceman who normally misses 15-20 games a year due to injury, to a three year contract for only slighlty less than it would have cost the team to keep Mike Komisarek. I have December 10th 2009 circled as the day Gainey is fired but wouldn't be surprised if it happend before then. Like...say, tomorrow.

2. Mattias Ohlund - This contract (7 years, $26 million) is Chapter 25 in my new book titled "How Oren Koules and Len Barrie destroyed the Tampa Bay Lightning". I understand and applaud the fact that you want to invest in the development of a young stud defenceman (Victor Hedman) you just drafted #2 overall, but do you really need to commit seven years to it? Wouldn't three or four have been enough? Ohlund's goal scoring totals have decreased five straight years as has his overall effectiveness.

3. Jay Bouwmeester - At his introductory press conference yesterday, when asked what made Calgary his choice destination, Bouwmeester answered "Ahhh, well, ahhh, ya, I just talked to a lot of the guys that play here, and ahhhh, ya, just ya, seems like a good place to be". He's a great skater and extremely good defensively in one-on-one situations, but seems to be about as intense as Vernon Wells. And he looks like he should be on 'The Hills'. And he's never played a single minute of playoff hockey, ever. Not in four years of junior and not during his six year NHL career. Not exactly the credentials you look for when it comes to winning.

4. Marian Gaborik - Absolutely one of the most talented players in the league but also one of the most injury-prone. His games played stats over the last five years read like this: 65, 65, 48, 77 and 17. In case you're wondering, it's an 82 game schedule. Handing Gaborik a five-year deal would be like a movie studio inking Lindsay Lohan to a multiple-film contract - totally inexplicable and potentially disastrous. Are we sure Glen Sather was the mastermind of those great Oiler teams in the 80's?

5. Nik Antropov - He didn't quite get the five year $25 million salary he reportedly asked the Rangers for, but the Thrashers came close (four years/$16 million). Another player who routinely spends time on the sidelines nursing injuries and often hurts his team with careless stick penalties. At his best, Antropov is an average second-line center. At his worst, he is Nick the Not-so-Quick who generally floats through games and is certainly not a difference-maker. Fortunately for Antropov, there is no need for a difference-maker in Atlanta, where the team is hopeless.

6. Vernon Wells - True, he doesn't play hockey but his numbers are so terrible (.301 OBP this year, .330 for his career) that I just couldn't resist pointing out how absurd his contract is. Following the 2006 season in which he slugged 32 homers, J.P. Riccardi signed Wells to a seven year extension that kicked in before the 2008 season. It earns him $10 million this year, $21 million next year, $23 million in 2011 and then back to $21 million for each of the final three seasons (thru 2014). In the 337 games Wells has played since signing the extension, he has 43 homers. That's one good month for Albert Pujols.

The Best

1. The Sedins - How Mike Gillis got the Sedin twins to sign for less than half of what they originally wanted (5 years/$30.5 million a piece rather than 12 years/$63 million each) is borderline incredible and he deserves considerable praise. The passing Sedin and the scoring Sedin are two of the most consistent point-producers in the NHL and Vancouver has them locked up at an un-outrageous price. They aren't the guys that will lead them to a Cup because they lack the grit and intangibles to do so, but what they do provide isn't easily replaceable either.

2. Scott Niedermayer - Nothing shocking about Niedermayer returning to Anaheim on a one-year $6 million contract, but it is an excellent signing for the Ducks. The best or second-best (to Nick Lidstrom) defenceman in the game will be only the 11th highest paid player at his position and leaves ample room to re-sign Francois Beauchemin and work out an extension for Bobby Ryan.

3. Craig Anderson - Slowly managers are catching on to the fact that it is idiotic (outside of Brodeur and Luongo) to pay a goalie big-time money. Anderson posted the third best GAA in the league last year when he (at times) wrestled the #1 job away from Tomas Vokoun. His two year $3.6 million contract will prove to be very rewarding for the Avalanche.

4. Mike Knuble - A consistent 25 goal scorer to play on the opposite wing with either Ovechkin or Semin for only $2.8 million a year? Yes, he's 37 years old but the contract is only two years long and Knuble has always been a 'stand-in front of the net and bang home rebounds' type of player, it's not like his game relies on speed. Well done Mr.McPhee.

5. Nobody - Honestly, I tried to talk myself into putting the Marian Hossa contract here, reasoning that the final four years of the twelve year contract he signed with Chicago only pay him a total of $3.4 million. So it's really only an eight year deal with an excellent cap-hit of just $5.2 million a year. But then again, IT'S STILL AN EIGHT YEAR DEAL! I also considered the contracts given to Havlat (too much injury history), Khabibulin (disappearing act), and Komisarek (over-hyped by the Montreal media) but quickly poked holes in each. In my opinion, the majority of free agent contracts handed out yesterday (and last year, and the year before, etc.) are somewhere between stupid and ridiculous and will cause the teams that awarded them more pain than gain.

The NHL's Slippery Slope

Another day, another lucrative, long-term contract generously served up by a league that obviously can't (or won't) help itself.

This time Vinny Lecavalier is the recipient and will earn $8.556 Million as a 38 year-old playing out the final year of his (rumoured) 9 year $77M contract. In the year 2018.

That massive deal follows in the footsteps of several other recent signings (sidebar on the right) that indicate NHL general managers are collectively changing the way they do business. Or they're all crazy. Has to be one of the two.

Are teams simply hoping the salary cap will continue to increase, year-after-year, without any recourse? Do they think by the time the last few remaining years of those deals come around, the cap will be $75M or $100M and the contract will actually look cheap? Can they automatically assume that one or two good seasons is enough to project a player's production 5 or 10 years down the line?

It's a nice thought, but...what if that doesn't happen? What if the annual salary cap, after rising a whopping 35% in 4 years, levels off and then a guy you've committed 7 or 8 years and $40-50M to doesn't fulfill expectations? Even worse, what if you have two guys like that? Or three?

It's a dark road the NHL is traveling down, and it's the same trail the NBA burned in the late 90's that lead to people like Jim McIlvane, Tariq Abdul-Wahad, and Austin Croshere earning some $127 million (combined) in salary. This is great news if you're Jeff Finger or Ron Hainsey or any other marginal player who may (or may not) have upside, but for everyone else it means bad times. Unless you cheer for Detroit, each contract from here on out has the potential to bury your franchise for the foreseeable future.

The NBA owners forced a lockout in 1999 not only to put a cap on player salaries, but also to implement the maximum length a contract could run. Teams were doling out 8, 10, even 12 year deals to stars and that in turn increased contract duration expectations around the league. Eager to keep young players away from free agency, GM's began paying on potential instead of production, and tacked on extra years without hesitation.

Remember the deals handed to Larry Johnson, Juwan Howard, Glenn Robinson and numerous other players who were either too young or still unproven? Remember the kind of damage they did to their respective teams?

Larry Johnson 12 years/$84M - 1994
Glenn Robinson 10 years/$68M - 1995
Donyell Marshall 9 years/$42M - 1994
Juwan Howard 7 years/$105M - 1996
Jayson Williams 7 years/$100M - 1999
Brian Grant 7 years/$84M - 2000
Vin Baker 6 years/$86.7M - 1997
Tim Thomas 6 years/$67M - 1999
Bryant Reeves 6 years/$65M - 1997
Antonio McDyess 6 years/$67M - 1998
Tom Gugliotta 6 years/$58.5M - 1998

In a few short years the entire landscape of the NBA changed. Instead of trading players you traded contracts. Where once you had almost every team competing, legitimately trying to win night in and night out, with most having a realistic shot of at least qualifying for the playoffs when training camp opened...all of a sudden you had a clear set of contenders and an equally clear set of pretenders who were fed to the lions and playing for the lottery from day one.

The NBA finally realized guaranteeing several tens of millions of dollars to athletes for a decade or more at a time, regardless of their performance, wasn't working out that well. Didn't exactly lead to motivation. Another factor was injuries. So they capped the length a contract could run for, and proceeded to shorten it again in the next round of CBA negotiating.

It was noted hockey genius Charles Wang who started this particular movement in the NHL, but it wasn't when he gave Rick Dipietro a 15 year contract in 2003. It actually began two years earlier when Wang signed (ahem) Alexei Yashin (10 years/$87.5M) and the Capitals inked Jaromir Jagr (7 years/$77M) to enormous contracts that neither player came close to playing out. In fact, both were paid to leave. Washington ate nearly half of Jagr's contract while he was wearing a Rangers jersey ($3.4M/year), and seven long years from now the Islanders will have squandered $17M in cap space for Yashin to stay home and continue not caring about hockey. Good investments?

In the years since we've seen several hockey players sign ridiculously long contracts and the situation is now unfolding just as it did in basketball. At first it's the stars: the hottest free agents and the best young players score huge extended deals. The rationale is obviously a move to circumvent the cap (more years at less dollars), and also, in the case of restricted free agents, to keep them away from other teams.

The problem isn't with the superstars getting big paydays, it's the length it comes with, and the effect that has on what everyone else can then demand.

As we look back on the recent history of the NBA, we can see the immediate future for the NHL. And it's not a pretty sight.