It's All Down Hill From Here

I began forecasting the slippery slope that the NHL is now fully sliding down back in 2008, long before the New Jersey Devils handed Ilya Kovalchuk the most alarming (and according to the powers that be, unethical) contract in the history of North American professional sport.

Back then, shortly after Vinny Lecavalier signed an 11 year $85 million contract, I wrote:

Are teams simply hoping the salary cap will continue to increase, year-after-year, without any recourse? Do they think by the time the last few remaining years of those deals come around, the cap will be $75M or $100M and the contract will actually look cheap? Can they automatically assume that one or two good seasons is enough to project a player's production 5 or 10 years down the line?

It's a nice thought, but...what if that doesn't happen? What if the annual salary cap, after rising a whopping 35% in 4 years, levels off and then a guy you've committed 7 or 8 years and $40-50M to doesn't fulfill expectations? Even worse, what if you have two guys like that? Or three?

It's a dark road the NHL is traveling down, and it's the same trail the NBA burned in the late 90's that lead to people like Jim McIlvane, Tariq Abdul-Wahad, and Austin Croshere earning some $127 million (combined) in salary. This is great news if you're Jeff Finger or Ron Hainsey or any other marginal player who may (or may not) have upside, but for everyone else it means bad times. Unless you cheer for Detroit, each contract from here on out has the potential to bury your franchise for the foreseeable future.

The NBA owners forced a lockout in 1999 not only to put a cap on player salaries, but also to implement the maximum length a contract could run. Teams were doling out 8, 10, even 12 year deals to stars and that in turn increased contract duration expectations around the league. Eager to keep young players away from free agency, GM's began paying on potential instead of production, and tacked on extra years without hesitation.

Remember the deals handed to Larry Johnson, Juwan Howard, Glenn Robinson and numerous other players who were either too young or still unproven? Remember the kind of damage they did to their respective teams?

Larry Johnson 12 years/$84M - 1994
Glenn Robinson 10 years/$68M - 1995
Donyell Marshall 9 years/$42M - 1994
Juwan Howard 7 years/$105M - 1996
Jayson Williams 7 years/$100M - 1999
Brian Grant 7 years/$84M - 2000
Vin Baker 6 years/$86.7M - 1997
Tim Thomas 6 years/$67M - 1999
Bryant Reeves 6 years/$65M - 1997
Antonio McDyess 6 years/$67M - 1998
Tom Gugliotta 6 years/$58.5M - 1998

In a few short years the entire landscape of the NBA changed. Instead of trading players you traded contracts. Where once you had almost every team competing, legitimately trying to win night in and night out, with most having a realistic shot of at least qualifying for the playoffs when training camp opened...all of a sudden you had a clear set of contenders and an equally clear set of pretenders who were fed to the lions and playing for the lottery from day one.

The NBA finally realized guaranteeing several tens of millions of dollars to athletes for a decade or more at a time, regardless of their performance, wasn't working out that well. Didn't exactly lead to motivation. Another factor was injuries. So they capped the length a contract could run for, and proceeded to shorten it again in the next round of CBA negotiating.

It was noted hockey genius Charles Wang who started this particular movement in the NHL, but it wasn't when he gave Rick Dipietro a 15 year contract in 2003. It actually began two years earlier when Wang signed (ahem) Alexei Yashin (10 years/$87.5M) and the Capitals inked Jaromir Jagr (7 years/$77M) to enormous contracts that neither player came close to playing out. In fact, both were paid to leave. Washington ate nearly half of Jagr's contract while he was wearing a Rangers jersey ($3.4M/year), and seven long years from now the Islanders will have squandered $17M in cap space for Yashin to stay home and continue not caring about hockey. Good investments?

In the years since we've seen several hockey players sign ridiculously long contracts and the situation is now unfolding just as it did in basketball. At first it's the stars: the hottest free agents and the best young players score huge extended deals. The rationale is obviously a move to circumvent the cap (more years at less dollars), and also, in the case of restricted free agents, to keep them away from other teams.

The problem isn't with the superstars getting big paydays, it's the length it comes with, and the effect that has on what everyone else can then demand.

As we look back on the recent history of the NBA, we can see the immediate future for the NHL. And it's not a pretty sight.

Now, two years later, the problem is coming to a head. The Kovalchuk deal, along with the contracts given to Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa, while within the rules of the salary cap, are clearly designed to circumvent it. The tail-end of each contract, when each player will be well into his 40's, will pay those players minimal salaries. Because the contracts were signed prior to the player turning 35 years-old, if the player retires before the contract is fulfilled it doesn't count against the individual teams salary cap. Basically it allows a guy like Kovalchuk to be paid $95 million over the first 11 years of his deal while the Devils somehow only take a $6 million cap hit each year.

It's a loop-hole that will certainly be dealt with during the next round of CBA negotiations when a maximum contract length rule will be implemented. But unfortunately by then it might be too late. More than one quarter of NHL teams already have (at least) one contract on their books that will run more than a decade (Chicago, Detroit, New Jersey, NY Islanders, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Washington), and who knows how many more will follow suit before the system can be corrected?

NHL Trade Deadline 2009

As trades roll in throughout the day the CSJ will provide updated commentary in live blog format, so check back in for continuing analysis--or sarcasm and ridicule, depending on the nature of the deals.

But before I get started dissecting all of the trade deadline movement, I wanted to address the current landscape of the league. Most of the hype surrounding the NHL season has focused on three teams who have compiled incredible records: Boston, San Jose and Detroit and rightfully so. Those teams have been atop the standings all year long and have each had lengthy streaks of near-perfect hockey and have positioned themselves as the overwhelming favorites heading into the playoffs.

The Bruins went 39-8-6 through February 5th and could end up with as many as seven 20 goal scorers up front and another two defencemen with 15 or more goals. The Sharks played 21 home games before they finally lost in regulation on January 15th and were an astonishing 36-6-5 through their first 47 games. They are blessed with two of the top 10 scorers in the game, an All-Star goalie, and a big, mean, talented supporting cast that leaves no holes in their line-up.

However both squads may have peaked too soon. Boston has won only 3 of their last 11 games while San Jose lost 6 of 7 in early February and neither is a sure bet to regain their form with only a fifth of the season remaining.

The defending champion Red Wings have finished with at least 108 points every year since 1998-99 and are well on their way to topping that total again this season, but Chris Osgood has been brutal in net and although the Wings have proven they don't necessarily need elite goaltending to win the Cup, asking Ty Conklin to front the load may be too much. Also working against the Wings is the fact that no NHL team has been able to repeat as champions in more than a decade.

In my opinion, that leaves the New Jersey Devils as the team to beat. Zach Parise is playing superstar level hockey, carrying his team at times while consistently putting up numbers and scoring crucial, game-changing goals. Jamie Langenbrunner and Travis Zajac are having career years, and Patrik Elias is on track to top 30 goals and a point-per-game for the first time in five years. Brian Gionta has rebounded following two disappointing campaigns, Brian Rolston is a known quantity, and Brendan Shanahan provides depth scoring and Stanley Cup experience. And their glue guys, the Maddens, Pandolfos and Holiks are close to the best in the business.

As a whole the defence doesn't have a lot of sizzle because there aren't those big-name players they've had in the past: no Stevens, Niedermayer or Rafalski, but the entire unit is confident, dependable and comfortable with their roles. Colin White (in his 9th season with the Devils) and Paul Martin (his fifth) set the tone and both have developed into solid players who rarely give an inconsistent effort. Johnny Oduya, the 27 year-old Swede who arrived two years ago, is another beautiful find for the NHL's best GM Lou Lamoriello, while Andy Green, Mike Mottau, and the newly acquired Niclas Havelid round out a group that shouldn't be taken lightly.

And then there is a certain star goalie who is about to become the all-time winningest netminder in NHL history and just surpassed 100 career shutouts. After missing four months with a shoulder injury Martin Brodeur will be fresh heading into the playoffs for the first time in...well, ever. With three Stanley Cup wins already to his credit, that is positively terrifying news to the rest of the league.

When you add in the superior coaching of the unheralded (or ignored?) Brent Sutter, who should be a final candidate for the 2010 Canadian Olympic team, and the upward trajectory the Devils find themselves on, New Jersey now finds themselves in the pole position.