Owners or Players?

The question has been constant for each and every hockey fan since a real threat of a lockout became apparent towards the end of the summer.

Who's side are you on: Owners or Players?

I couldn't choose. I assumed all along that a league that cancelled an entire season and players who sacrificed on average 20% of their career earnings only eight years ago wouldn't be so foolish as to miss games again. With "record revenues", a long-term U.S. television network deal, and plenty of buzz from another thrilling Stanley Cup playoff that culminated with a major market being crowned champions, I just didn't believe they could be so stupid. I thought a deal would get done. I thought a deal had to get done.

Did I think the owners initial offer that they unfathomably made public back in July was comically unreasonable? Absolutely. But I also assumed that with an average NHL player's salary sitting at $2.5 million, and the minimum at $550K, the NHLPA would comprehend how ridiculously well-compensated they are and be motivated to keep the gravy train rolling.

Even if the offer was a slap in the face (which again, it definitely was), it set the parameters for where the league wanted to go with the CBA and it was then up to the PA to get the best deal they could within those parameters. That's how these negotiations work, not just in hockey, but in all sports. In all business. The owners take the risk and therefore they have the ultimate say on how they will divide up their business. They set the framework and negotiations (eventually) progress from there.

But instead of common sense prevailing*, here we are days away from what should be the first night of the regular season, and we are somehow already guaranteed to miss games and might be on the verge of losing the whole season. Again.

*I along with 200,000 other hockey fans out there can mediate this stand-off in no time: gradual slide to 50/50 split of HRR; immediate increases to revenue sharing and re-distribution to lower-revenue teams; 8 year maximum length on contracts; same rules for free agency. Boom. Your welcome.

Instead of locking themselves in a room and chipping away at the gap that exists between the two sides, we've watched as months pass in between the swapping of proposals, and now weeks go by without any sort of meetings. The lack of urgency from either side is jarring.

I couldn't choose a side when the question was first asked months ago, and I'm no closer to an answer now. Mostly I'm just extremely frustrated with everyone involved.

I'm frustrated with the owners who have so little regard for the fans money and passion that they readily shut the game down every 8 or 10 years. I'm frustrated with the players who have copped out and gone overseas. I'm particularly frustrated with Mike Cammalleri for saying "you can go over there [to the KHL] and make millions and millions and millions of dollars to play hockey". Ummm, Mike, you do realize we can easily go online and figure out that you've earned about $26 million thus far in your NHL career, and have 2 more years at $7 million per on your contract. Would $40 million count as "millions and millions and millions of dollars to play hockey"? Because in my book it does.

And I'm frustrated with myself for already admitting that whenever this senseless lockout ends, I will be back going to games and watching them on television, just like nothing ever happened.

Bullpen's Are the New Goalie

A major league bullpen is like an NHL goalie: they can be found anywhere and for the most part, neither should ever be paid.

Sure if you're the Yankees or Red Sox or Angels working with an unlimited budget, you can spend on your relief corps. But if you're a smaller-market baseball team trying to win with limited resources, or if you are any team in the NHL working in a salary-cap system, the bullpen and the goal crease are two areas that can easily and effectively be skimped on when it comes to player contracts. I apologize that sounded an awful-lot like an essay, but this is serious stuff for a guy who thinks about sports 18 hours a day.

Over the last few years I've repeatedly written about goalies being under-valued in the NHL (here, here and here) and now that the Philadelphia Flyers have used two ultimate-journeymen between the pipes and still find themselves in the Stanley Cup final, this fact may actually be known. Although with Brian Burke trading for J.S. Giguere and his $7.5 million contract, Leaf fans might disagree.

In professional hockey, there is no point to spending money on that position. My apologies to everyone in Vancouver who are wiping away tears at the thought of Roberto Luongo's 12-year extension that kicks in next year. Frankly, I'm shocked to be living in a world where Rick DiPietro's 15 year contract is the second worst goaltending deal around. Never though it'd happen.

After watching both nobodies and somebodies win and lose ballgames in late innings the last few years, I am convinced the same philosophy can be applied to Major League bullpens. The number of MLB relievers who have come out of nowhere to have recent success is huge, way too high to count or list in this space, but one needs to look no further than our own Toronto Blue Jays for proof.

Scott Downs was a failed starter when he arrived in Toronto in 2005 but has been one of the most effective (and underpaid) lefty relievers in baseball since 2007. Sean Camp was the 500th overall pick in 1997 and blew chances to stick in both Kansas City and Tampa but has been stunningly effective in a Jays uniform. Jesse Carlson was lights-out a few years ago. Jeremy Accardo saved 30 games while earning less than $400k in 2007. And Kevin Gregg...well, Kevin Gregg sucks but at least he too is cheap. You can't win them all.

But you can patch together a bullpen out of castoffs, reclamation projects, and cheap older veterans looking to reprove themselves on one year contracts.

16 NHL Playoff Questions

16. Colorado Avalanche

Is Colorado capable of upsetting the Sharks?
In a word: no. The Aves piled up points early in the season when teams were overlooking them and then backed into the playoffs winning only three of their last 13 games. A good young core is in place but this squad over-achieved all year and will quickly be dismissed in the playoffs.

Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

15. Philadelphia Flyers

Who will stop the puck?

My attitude on goaltending is well documented in this space, but even I can't defend the Flyers in this situation. Going into the playoffs with a Brian Boucher/Sebastien Caron tandem simply isn't going to work. Let the Carey Price rumours begin in earnest.

Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

14. Montreal Canadiens

Are their fans capable of stealing a game or two?
I'm more interested to see what the Habs will do this summer with both their young goalies coming up to restricted free agency (it'll be delighful to watch them push a still developing Carey Price out of town) than I am with what they'll do in the playoffs. Four games? Five games? Six would be pressing it, but you never know how far the rabid crowd will be able to carry them.
Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

13. Boston Bruins

Who will light the lamp for Boston?

The emergence of Tuuka Rask in net offers Boston the threat of an upset, but their punchless offence will hold them back. (It's become clear that David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron are unable to step up to fill the void left by Marc Savard, and I don't know who would count on Michael Ryder, Mark Recchi, Marco Sturm and Blake Wheeler.) We could be looking at an effort from Rask that matches Marty Turco's performance against Vancouver a few years ago when he posted three shutouts in the series but his team still lost in seven games.

Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

12. Nashville Predators

Can anyone give one good reason why this team isn't located in Canada?

Nashville has four trips to the playoffs in franchise history and have never made it out of the first round. That trend should continue. Other than that I have nothing illuminating to discuss about the Preds, they have a nice enough team and clearly Barry Trotz is a tremendous coach, but this franchise is boring and needs to be relocated. To Canada.

Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

11. Phoenix Coyotes

Has Lee Stempniak honestly transformed into Pavel Bure?

The Leaf cast-off scored 25 goals in 123 games for Toronto over the last two years and mostly looked like he was playing himself right out of the NHL. After landing in Phoenix at the trade deadline, Stempniak scored 14 goals in 18 games and made thousands of Toronto fans scream at the television while watching the highlights. So can we expect Stempniak to lead the Coyotes past Detroit and on an extended playoff run? Umm, no. Let's just say I don't think the pressure of playoff hockey will be kind to Mr.Stempniak.

Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

10. LA Kings

Are the Kings still hungry?

In the three seasons previous to this year the Kings finished 28th, 30th and 26th overall. After a stellar regular season that resulted in a 22 point improvement in the standings and the first playoff appearance for the franchise in eight years, does LA have enough gumption to continue to push or will they relax and feel comfortable with everything they've already accomplished? I'm leaning towards the latter.

Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

9. Ottawa Senators
Can the Sens win their first series since reaching the Finals in 2006-07?

The Sens go into the postseason with the worst goal differential (-13) of any playoff team. Even with Jason Spezza (14 points in his last 8 games) and rookie defenceman Erik Karlsson (12 points in his last 10 games) streaking, Ottawa doesn't have the depth or will to match-up with a Penguin team that swept them two years ago.
Playoff Prediction: 1st round exit

8. San Jose Sharks

Is this the year the Sharks finally put it all together?
The playoff struggles for San Jose have been well documented (haven't made it past the second round since the lockout), and now they're coming off another superb regular season that has again created lofty expectations. Unfortunately for Sharks fans, I can't see a reason why anything will be different this time.
Playoff Prediction: 2nd round exit

7. Buffalo Sabres
What's more dangerous than a hot goalie heading into the playoffs?
Nothing, and that's why the Sabres are scary. Ryan Miller has to be considered the best goalie in the NHL right now, and that gives them a chance against anyone. There's also something about Lindy Ruff (mainly the winning) that makes this team tough to ignore.
Playoff Prediction: 2nd round exit

6. Chicago Blackhawks

Why am I picking against Chicago?

There isn't a single reason I can point to for not backing the Hawks. They are a very good team (almost the Western Conference replica of Washington, right down to the goaltending questions) and could very easily outperform my prediction, I just think Vancouver will prevail in their second-round match-up.

Playoff Prediction: 2nd round exit

5. Pittsburgh Penguins
Can the Pens flip-the-switch?

Pittsburgh, more than any other playoff team, seemed to treat the regular season as nothing more than an extended training camp. They started the season with nine wins in ten games and pretty much coasted the rest of the way. The Pens went 7-9 down the stetch but have the confidence of back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances to lean on as well as the most dynamic 1-2 punch (Crosby and Malkin) in all of hockey. But no team has been to three straight Stanley Cup Finals since Edmonton in the earlly 80's.

Playoff Prediction: 2nd round exit

4. Detroit Red Wings

Are the Wings all the way back?

After residing outside the playoff picture for the first five months of the season Detroit found it's game (and got healthy) and predictably returned to it's rightful place amongst the NHL's elite. What worries me a little is that just about every player on the team performed below career averages statistically and this is not a young team (average age of 30.3, oldest in NHL).

Playoff Prediction: Conference Finalist

3. Washington Capitals

Will the Caps be able to score their way to the finals?

Washington's 318 goals scored were the most by any team in the last 15 years. The Caps had seven 20 goal scorers and nine regulars who averaged more than half-a-point a game. They are far and away the most exciting team to watch. They also allowed the third most goals of any playoff team which makes them particularly vulnerable in net.

Playoff Prediction: Conference Finalist

2. New Jersey Devils

Can Ilya Kovalchuk lead a team deep into the playoffs?

You might try to argue this question by pointing out that the Devils get most of their leadership from Martin Brodeur and Zach Parise, but if Jersey plans to challenge Washington and Pittsburgh in the East, they'll need Kovalchuk, who has four career NHL playoff games on his resume, to step up offensively and provide the spark. With a new contract hanging in the balance, and a real opportunity to shine under the brightest spotlight, I see Kovalchuk taking full advantage and going on a tear.

Playoff Prediction: Stanley Cup Finalist

1. Vancouver Canucks
Can Roberto Luongo regain his form?

On paper the Canucks have the best team in the NHL. With two elite scorers, plenty of secondary scoring options, a solid if under-appreciated blueline and an All-Star goalie, this team has all the pieces in place to make a run. The perceived problem is that their All-Star goalie was shelled in last year's playoffs and has struggled down the stretch. After facing and conquering immense pressure during the Olympics, it was only natural he would have a bit of a letdown as the long NHL season wore on. I think he'll be re-energized for the playoffs and that makes Vancouver my pick to win it all.

Playoff Prediction: Stanley Cup Champions

The Champs Have Arrived...But For How Long?

The Penguins have been Stanley Cup champions for all of a week and already we're hearing talk about how Pittsburgh is set to be the next dynasty. That appearances in the Stanley Cup Finals will be an annual occurence and as hockey fans we should pretty much be happy that we are lucky enough to be around to watch them do it.

Well, I'm not quite ready to buy it. Pittsburgh will be a good team the next few years, no question. With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin as your backbone, you're going to win enough to make the playoffs no matter who else is on the team. But a dynasty? Multiple Cup wins? At this point that's a massive stretch.

Ever since Jordan Staal burst onto the scene with his 31-goal rookie season performance, the buzz surrounding the Penguins was how they could possibly keep their big three centers together in a salary-capped world. Even after signing a 4 year $16 million extension this past season, Staal is typically the first Pittsburgh player mentioned in trade discussion when considering the Penguins salary cap future.

And that's because the Penguins are a salary cap disaster. Heading into next year, the 2009-10 season, they'll pay $38 million (or 69% of cap space assuming a $55 million salary cap) to only seven players (or 30% of their roster). Those seven players, Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Kunitz, Gonchar, Orpik, and Fleury, form a very admirable core but it doesn't leave a lot of dollars to sign anything more than journeymen or inexperienced youngsters to fill out the roster. In fact, the Pens need to sign seven more players (four forwards, two defencemen and a goalie) to complete their roster and have less than $6 million to do it. So if Bill Guerin and/or Ruslan Fedotenko are coming back, they'll be coming back on the cheap.

The following year the situation will be even worse. Sergei Gonchar's $5.5 million contract comes off the books but Fleury goes up by $2 million a year to $5.5 a year and emerging defenceman Kris Letang will need a new deal. Even if they allow Gonchar to walk the Penguins will still be paying $35 million for only six players plus another 3-4 a year to keep Letang, which puts them right back to $38-39 million for seven players. Only that year, the 2010-11 season, the salary cap is projected to decline sharply, possibly down to $52 million or lower.

Even with two team-friendly contracts for bottom six forwards in Talbot and Kennedy, GM Ray Shero will still be forced to sign minimum-wage players to one year contracts and take chances on inexpensive journeymen. Maybe Sid and Geno will be good enough to win more Cups without any wingers, but maybe not. And that's usually where the Staal trade rumours come from, the perceived desire of the Pens to better balance the roster and perhaps provide one or both of their superstar centers with a bonafide scoring winger.

But the smartest move would actually be trading Marc-Andre Fleury, and more importantly, his sizable contract. Fleury is entering the second year of a 7 year $35 million contract and after back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals and superb efforts last week in games six and seven to win it all, his value may never be higher. I've made it known how over-valued I feel NHL goaltenders are in general (here ) and clearing out Fleury's contract would free up $4 million a year to spend on that goal-scoring winger and wouldn't break-up the solid foundation they've built up the middle.

If the Red Wings have provided the blueprint of how to win in the new NHL and they spent $2.2 million total on goaltending, does anyone really believe that the Penguins couldn't win the Cup next year with Scott Clemmensen or Antero Nittymaki in net?

Stanley Cup Storylines

Now that the Red Wings and Penguins have officially avoided what would've been a disastrous (for the fans…and the League) nine day layoff between the 3rd and 4th rounds, the hockey world can focus exclusively on the marquee matchup the hockey gods have presented us with.

Without further ado, here are five storylines to watch as the Stanley Cup Final unfolds:

1) A Repeat?
In North-American major professional sports, no team has won back-to-back titles since the NFL’s Patriots in ‘04 and ’05. The last NHL team to repeat as champion was the Wings themselves back in ’97 and ’98. They will be attempting to win their 5th Stanley Cup in 13 years (and only 12 seasons), which as a Leafs fan pretty much makes me want to cry.

I think the long long-term contracts to Zetterberg and especially Franzen will eventually hinder them, but you have to hand it to Ken Holland and his entire front office who have been the best in the business for almost 15 years. A fifth Cup, including two back-to-backs, elevates them again historically. By the way, the Wings spent a total of $2.2 million on goaltending this year.

2) The Playoff Goal-Scoring Record
The all-time single season playoff goal-scoring record is 19 and held jointly by Jari Kurri and Reggie Leach. Sidney Crosby (14 goals) is within reach and Evgeni Malkin (12) has an outside shot of breaking the mark. The two have combined to score 40% of the Pens playoff goals and have pushed each other in a way no two teammates have since Mario and Jagr almost 20 years ago. Zing!

(Sidenote: How many players would pass up an empty net goal, like Crosby did in the dying seconds of game four versus Carolina, while chasing such a colossal record? Not many. And certainly not Malkin or Ovechkin.)

3) Benedict Hossa
That was the name given to Marian Hossa by a friend of mine (obviously a huge Pens fan) after Hossa spurned Pittsburgh’s $50 million offer and chose instead to sign a one-year deal in Motown for “a better chance at the Cup”. The next 10 days will ultimately determine whether Hossa made the right choice, but one thing is absolutely certain: Hossa is the only athlete that we can truly believe when he says “it’s not about the money”.

4) Team Canada’s Olympic Goaltending Situation
Two weeks ago Cam Ward was the “it” goalie and received considerable ink (ahhh, type?) as the best option for third goaltender on next year’s Canadian Olympic roster. Now, I’m not sure why the third stringer for a tournament that doesn’t start for another nine months has suddenly become such a hot topic, but it has. And Marc-Andre Fleury is now getting his turn as flavour of the day and you can be sure that should Chris Osgood collect his fourth ring (3rd as starter) many will speculate that he too deserves consideration. There is no disputing the numbers Osgood has put up over his career, and Stanley Cups are why you play the game, but these Detroit teams that he backstopped haven’t exactly depended on him for greatness. I wouldn’t say he has won Stanley Cups as much as he hasn’t lost them.

Anyway, so much can happen in the four months of NHL hockey prior to the Olympics that all anyone can say for sure is that behind Brodeur and Luongo are several capable possibilities. And Osgood isn’t one of them.

5) The Grizzled Rookie
Winnipeg native Darren Helm is on the verge of earning his second Stanley Cup ring and amazingly will still enter next season as an NHL rookie. The game five overtime hero for Detroit has played just 23 regular season games total over the last two years (versus 34 playoff contests) meaning he’ll be perhaps the most decorated rookie ever to play in the NHL.

Here is how the 22 year-old Helm has spent his last five springs: two trips to the Stanley Cup Finals (’09 & ’08); one loss in the Memorial Cup Final (’07), third round (’06) and second round (’05) losses in the WHL playoffs; and a Junior “B” championship with the Selkirk Fisherman.

Oh, and he also won back-to-back World Junior Championships for Canada.

Winning is all the guy knows.